2019 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions & Pick

The most explosive event of Major League Baseball’s All-Star break happens on Monday night, with the 2019 MLB Home Run Derby. The winner gets a new prize this year, in addition to a trophy — a $1 million check. This is one of the younger Home Run Derby fields, with the average age at 25.26 years of age, and when you are that young, a prize of that size sounds even more amazing. The participants this year are Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, Josh Bell, Alex Bregman, Ronald Acuna, Jr., Joc Pederson and Carlos Santana. We have your MLB Home Run Derby odds for each of the eight participants as well as our thoughts on the winner.

2019 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions & Pick

• When: Monday, July 8th, 2019. 8pm ET.
• Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio.
• TV: ESPN
• Live Stream: WatchESPN

2019 MLB Home Derby Winner Odds

• Josh Bell (Pittsburgh Pirates)                                                                                     +275
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Toronto Blue Jays)                                                                  +400
• Pete Alonso (N.Y. Mets)                                                                                             +500
• Matt Chapman  (Oakland A’s)                                                                                                +550
• Ronald Acuna Jr (Atlanta Braves), Joc Pederson (L.A. Dodgers)                             +700
• Alex Bregman (Houston Astros)                                                                                 +1000
• Carlos Santana (Cleveland Indians)                                                                           +1200

Schedule

Round 1

• #1 Matt Chapman vs #8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• #4 Alex Bregman vs #5 Joc Pederson
• #2 Pete Alonso vs #7 Carlos Santana
• #3 Josh Bell vs #6 Ronald Acuna Jr.

Round 2

• 1-8 winner vs 4-5 winner
• 2-7 winner vs 3-6 winner

Round 3

• Finals

Chapman and Guerrero both hit the ball hard — but Gerrero has just eight home runs. He did start the season late, but that is a small number. He does have the power to excel here — but at the age of 20, he is the youngest player ever to take part in a Home Run Derby. Chapman can hit home runs to all fields, which should serve him well should the BP-style pitches wander to the other side of the plate Bregman is the furthest from a slugger in this field of eight, but he did take part in 2018. Understanding how the event works is important, so that experience will help him. His home runs tend to come in line drives instead of booming arcs, and left field in Cleveland has a high fence. Pederson made it to the finals in 2015, losing to Todd Frazier in his most recent appearance in the derby. He is more of a platoon player these days, but he does pack a punch. Alonso leads this field as far as home runs to this point in the 2019 regular season. He also has the home run with the fastest exit velocity on the season, at 118.3 miles per hour. Alonso has been a terrific rookie — perhaps the only bright part of a dreadful Mets season so far. Santana is the oldest in this group, at 33, and he will  have the Cleveland faithful pulling for him. His power numbers are up this year, but his presence likely has to do with the unwillingness of others to take part. Bell and Acuna will likely hit the biggest bombs, so it’s kind of a shame they are squaring off in the first round. Bell has hit five home runs that traveled more than 450 feet, and Acuna is third in MLB in average home run distance. Here are our predictions:

Round 1

• Guerrero over Chapman
• Pederson over Bregman
• Santana over Alonso
• Bell over Acuna

Round 2

• Pederson over Guerrero
• Bell over Santana

2019 MLB Home Run Champion: Bell over Pederson