Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – July 8th

The 2019 All-Star break is upon us in Major League Baseball, with the Home Run Derby set for Monday night (although without such bombers as Christian Yelich or Joey Gallo taking part, due to concerns about possible injury). In the American League, the Yankees continue to edge away from Tampa Bay in the East, leading by 6 ½ games. In the Central, Cleveland has come back from the dead, winning seven of ten to take advantage of a slump by the Twins and close to just 5 ½ games out of first. In the West, Houston has won seven of ten, but Oakland has held pace to stay 7 ½ games out, while Texas looks to be heading back down to reality, losers of six of ten and nine games back. In the National League, the Washington Nationals have returned to the postseason conversation, winners of eight of ten to slip past Philadelphia into second in the East, just six games back of Atlanta. The Central remains an odd place, with all five teams within 4 ½ games of each other but no team more than four games above .500, as the Cubs currently lead Milwaukee by a half-game at 47-43. In the West, the Dodgers have cooled off, dropping five of ten, but no one has taken advantage, as Arizona has only been able to move one game closer, now 13 ½ games out. We have your MLB betting picks for baseball this coming weekend after league play resumes.

Top MLB Betting Picks of the Week – July 8th

Here’s where the Red Sox sit in ESPN’s MLB power rankings at the All-Star break: https://t.co/AJqvxYvSaZ pic.twitter.com/qk3ulf7JMq

— NESN (@NESN) July 8, 2019

Friday, July 12

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20pm ET)

• Projected Pitching Matchup: Chris Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) (PIT) vs Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01 ERA) (CHI)

Chris Archer is having a hard time lasting in games for Pittsburgh, as he has not made it to the sixth inning in four straight starts. He isn’t getting shelled all that badly, but his lack of control is leading to high pitch counts. Over those four starts — which the team has won but only after he has left the game — he has thrown 19 combined innings, permitting 10 earned runs on 17 hits, including four home runs, striking out 27 and walking 11. His stuff has been decent, but he is leaving his bullpen with too much work to do. The Cubs will send Yu Darvish to the mound to start the second half of the season. Darvish has not shown ace stuff since coming to Chicago from Texas but, interestingly, he got decisions in each of his first five starts (starting with a 2-3 record) but only has one decision since April 23. In his last three starts, he has been very hittable, throwing 17 ⅔ combined innings but giving up six home runs among 16 hits, permitting 13 earned runs over that stretch. His fastball is either off the plate or right down the middle, failing to set up his terrific curve ball — which he is not throwing for strikes. Archer is struggling for Pittsburgh, but I bet the Pirates will find ways to hit Darvish after getting to him for four earned runs in 6 ⅔ innings on July 3. MLB Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh 7, Chicago 4

Houston at Texas (8:05pm ET)

• Projected Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole (9-5, 3.09 ERA) (HOU) vs Jesse Chavez (3-4, 3.30 ERA) (TEX)

Gerrit Cole may be moving into the ace role in Houston, with wins in three straight starts and in four of his last five. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in a game since April 22, and he has not allowed more than one since June 14. In his last four starts, he has thrown 26 innings, permitted three earned runs on 24 hits, striking out 30 while walking just seven. His last start was a gem, as he rolled through the Angels lineup for seven shutout innings, scattering three hits while fanning nine and walking just a pair. He should have more than enough stuff to baffle the Rangers’ lineup. Texas will counter with Jesse Chavez. The Rangers moved him from the bullpen to the rotation on June 19, and in his first two starts he was terrific, throwing 11 ⅓ combined innings and permitting just one earned run on nine hits, striking out ten and walking none. Since then, though, he has been very hittable, permitting seven earned runs in his last two starts, allowing 10 hits and striking out 11 — but walking just two. His pitches are finding way too much of the plate lately, a trend that Houston’s lineup should be able to exploit. MLB Betting Prediction: Houston 6, Texas 1