Sandhagen vs Font: UFC Fight Night Betting Predictions

Sandhagen vs Font: UFC Fight Night Betting Predictions

UFC heads to Tennessee this week, as Bridgestone Arena in Nashville will host UFC on ESPN 50. Cory Sandhagen, a former interim UFC Bantamweight Championship challenger, was supposed to meet Umar Nurmagomedov in the main event, but Nurmagomedov had a shoulder injury that forced him to bow out. Rob Font has replaced him in what will be a catchweight event at 140 pounds. In the co-headliner, Tatiana Suarez, who won The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs Team Claudia in the strawweight division, was set to fight Virna Jandiroba. However, a knee injury forced Jandiroba out, and former UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion Jessica Andrade will fight instead. We have the full fight card along with UFC betting thoughts on the top two fights.

 

UFC on ESPN 50: Sandhagen vs Font Preview

 

Main Card

ESPN / ESPN+
Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font (Catchweight-140 lbs)
Jessica Andrade vs Tatiana Suarez (Women’s Strawweight)
Dustin Jacoby vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (Light Heavyweight)
Diego Lopes vs Gavin Tucker (Featherweight)
Tanner Boser vs Aleksa Camur (Light Heavyweight)
Igancio Bahamondes vs L’udovit Klein (Lightweight)
 

Preliminary Card

ESPN / ESPN+
Billy Quarantillo vs Damon Jackson (Featherweight)
Kyler Phillips vs Raoni Barcelos (Bantamweight)
Jeremiah Wells vs Carlston Harris (Welterweight)
Sean Woodson vs Dennis Buzujka (Featherweight)
Cody Durden vs Jake Hadley (Flyweight)
Ode’ Osbourne vs Assu Almabayev (Flyweight)

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Cory Sandhagen vs Rob Font

Cory Sandhagen (16-4, 9-3 UFC, -330) vs Rob Font (20-6, 10-5 UFC, +240) is Sandhagen’s latest attempt to earn a title shot in the bantamweight division. Sandhagen is in one of the deepest divisions in the promotion, but he has been on the march since he entered in 2018. He used heavy pace to upset John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao. His next fight, against Aljamain Sterling, only lasted about 90 seconds as Sterling took Sandhagen to the ground and tapped him out. Sandhagen bounced back to finish Marlon Moraes and Frankie Edgar, and even though his next two bouts were losses to T.J. Dillashaw and Petr Yan, they were solid performances. Sandhagen should have beaten Dillashaw, but Dillashaw used wrestling to build a lot of control time. Sandhagen fought Yan blow for blow but simply could not break through. He beat song and Marlon Vera in main events before getting this fight.

Rob Font has a lot of offensive weapons, but he has a way of giving too much ground against tough opponents. This was a problem until he beat Ricky Simon in 2019, when he showed he could keep his ground against an opponent bringing pressure and return the offense himself, and it was this win that started him on the path to headliner status. He took tough losses against Jose Aldo and Vera, fights in which his numbers were good (he threw 520 strikes against Vera, for example), but the punishment he took led to finishes. Sandhagen is more of a gradual, consistent striker than one who brings big bombs, so Font should be able to last longer. However, Sandhagen has some physical advantages and a wrestling edge.

Final Prediction: Sandhagen wins via decision

Tatiana Suarez vs Jessica Andrade

Tatiana Suarez (9-0, 6-0 UFC, -425) vs Jessica Andrade (24-11, 15-9 UFC, +300) is Andrade’s fourth tilt of 2023. The one-time strawweight champ earned her title emphatically, dropping Rose Namajunas on her head in 2019 to get the belt. She lost the title to Weili Zhang just a few months later, but she became a contender at flyweight and strawweight. She was willing to fight in either division, beating Lauren Murphy in January to show that her violence was still a source of terror. However, Erin Blanchfield stopped her with a wrestling submission just a few weeks later. She hurried back to meet strawweight contender Xiaonan Yan, attempting to land the big bomb she needed for a knockout, only for Yan to step into the defensive vacuum and simply demolish Andrade. She’s still only 31, so she has time to figure things out, but that might involve taking time to retool instead of stepping in at the last minute for another hard fight.

Tatiana Suarez has dealt with injuries and bad luck, including a thyroid cancer diagnosis that kept her out of wrestling in the 2012 Olympics. When she got to UFC, she started stacking wins immediately until a 2019 victory over Nina Nunes, when she suffered the first in a run of injuries that kept her out of the Octagon until February. She fought up at 125 pounds so she wouldn’t have to deal with cutting, but that didn’t matter as she demolished Montana De La Rosa. Her striking is average, but her wrestling and grappling are elite. Expect that wrestling to take front stage here.

Final prediction: Suarez wins via submission

 
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