We’re now in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League quarterfinals, with all four matches set for the same time on Thursday. Bayer Leverkusen finally overcame its desultory nickname of “Neverkusen,” breaking through for their first Bundesliga title, which will send them up to the UEFA Champions League next year. Don’t lock in any Europa League betting decisions on these matches until you’ve read our previews.
UEFA Europa League Quarterfinals Betting Analysis: Second Leg Previews
AS Roma vs AC Milan
Roma leads aggregate, 1-0
When: 3:00 pm ET
Europa League Odds: AS Roma +140 vs AC Milan -135 // Draw +240
All Roma has to do is secure a draw at home to advance to the semifinals, where they would meet the winner of West Ham United or Leverkusen. AC Milan won both of the Serie A contests with Roma, but those results don’t always carry over to other competitions. Gianluca Mancini scored the only goal in the first leg, heading a ball home in the 17th minute. This was Roma’s first win over AC Milan in the 2020s, ending a 10-match winless streak. Roma would also advance to the Champions League next year if they can stay in the top five of Serie A – or win the Europa League title this year. Roma did take a hit when Evan Ndicka collapsed in the 72nd minute of their match against Udinese. He left on a stretcher and will watch this match from the sideline.
Milan saw their seven-match winning streak and their 29-match streak of scoring goals across all competitions come to an end. They sent 25 shots toward Roma’s goal. In their last eight UEFA knockout ties in which they lost at home in the first leg, they have been sent home. On Sunday, they drew 3-3 against Sassuolo, a bottom-feeder in Serie A, as they played careless soccer and found themselves down 3-1 before Rafael Leao and Noah Okafor drew them level. They sit in second place in Serie A but trail Inter Milan by 14. They face their crosstown rivals in the Derby della Madonnina this weekend. Can they muster the offense and the defense to emerge victorious?
UEFA Europa League Pick: AC Milan to win
Marseille vs Benfica
Benfica leads aggregate, 2-1
When: 3:00 pm ET
Europa League Odds: Marseille +330 vs Benfica -120 // Draw +275
Benfica heads to Marseille having just lost once in their last nine matches, while Marseille has seen their Ligue 1 season simply fall apart, with five straight losses across all competitions. The return of Jean-Louis Gasset initially gave Marseille a boost as they scored 18 goals combined in a five-match winning streak, but in this losing streak, they have managed just three goals. Marseille did get a goal in Lisbon against Benfica as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang found the back of the net, but they haven’t dropped a first leg of any knockout round in UEFA competition in six years.
Benfica is also fighting history as they have not gotten to the semifinals of any European competition in 10 years. Benfica maintained clean sheets at Toulouse (0-0) and Rangers (1-0), and the ability to shut opponents down on the road has benefited them. Given the length of Marseilles’ injury report, though, it’s hard to see the hosts doing enough to advance here.
UEFA Europa League Pick: Take the draw
West Ham United vs Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen leads aggregate, 2-0
When: 3:00 pm ET
Europa League Odds: West Ham United +250 vs Bayer Leverkusen -118 // Draw +250
Yes, Leverkusen did win at home, 2-0, but it took more than 80 minutes for their offense to get through West Ham keeper Lukasz Fabianski. Jonas Hofmann and Victor Boniface came on as substitutes and finally turned what would become a 33-shot barrage into winning offense. That was the most shots that West Ham had conceded since 2014 when Chelsea sent 39 balls toward their net.
West Ham is in a funk right now, with just one win in their last six matches across all competitions, including a 2-0 loss to Fulham this past weekend that would have been much uglier without Fabianski’s heroics in net. In 2024, they have played 10 home matches and won just twice, and they have been set home from two straight European ties after dropping the first leg by at least a pair of goals.
UEFA Europa League Pick: Leverkusen to win
Atalanta vs Liverpool
Atalanta leads aggregate, 3-0
When: 3:00 pm ET
Europa League Odds: Atalanta +340 vs Liverpool -145 // Draw +333
After taking a massive beating at home, Liverpool has an immense task if they plan to get to the semifinals of the Europa League. In 132 tries, no team in the Europa League has ever won a first leg away by three or more goals and failed to advance. Atalanta looked sloppier over the weekend in their Serie A match against Hellas Verona, letting a 2-0 lead turn into a 2-2 draw, and Atalanta has only won three of their last 11 matches in all competitions.
Liverpool has a run of four away fixtures, but they have scored in every match away from Anfield this season. The last time they played at Atalanta, they won in a 5-0 laugher. So they could come back. But will they?
UEFA Europa League Pick: Liverpool to win
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Round of 16: Sporting vs Atalanta Europa League Odds
When Atalanta heads to Portugal to take on Sporting CP in the UEFA Europa League Round of 16, this will be their eighth meeting in major European competitions. Atalanta has three wins, Sporting has two, and the other two have ended in draws. Two of those meetings came early in this season in Europa League as Atalanta won, 2-1, in Portugal, while settling for a draw on their home pitch. However, Sporting CP has never lost the first leg in a round of 16 Europa League tie, in four chances, and they have moved to the quarterfinals in three straight appearances, most recently in 2022-23. Read on to get our Europa League betting insights on Wednesday’s clash.
UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Betting Analysis: Sporting vs Atalanta, First Leg
When: Wednesday, March 6, 2024, 12:45 pm ET
Where: Jose Alvalade Stadium, Lisbon
TV: No National Broadcast
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Paramount+
Europa League Betting Odds: Sporting Lisbon +105 / Draw +250 / Atalanta +265
Why should you bet on Sporting Lisbon?
Viktor Gyoekeres has put the Sporting offense on his back in the Europa League this year, scoring five goals in seven matches in this competition. The last player with more goals in Europa League play in a season was Ricky van Wolfswinkel, who netted six in 2011-2012.
Atalanta has struggled in their last two Serie A matches. They took a 4-0 beating at the hands of Inter Milan on the road and then lost at home, 2-1, to Bologna. That was Atalanta’s first home loss since November 2023. It was just a four-minute lapse that led to the second loss, as Joshua Zirkzee and Lewis Ferguson turned a 1-0 Atalanta lead into a 2-1 deficit. They now have a three-game winless streak in Serie A – but they also have a two-game unbeaten streak going against Sporting. Sporting also has a four-game unbeaten streak at home in round-of-16 games in the Europa League.
Why should you put your money on Atalanta?
Atalanta has a solid all-time record in Europa League matches – 12 wins, six draws, two losses. However, both of those losses came in the knockout stages. In February 2018, they lost to Borussia Dortumind in the round of 32, and in 2022, they lost to RB Leipzig in the quarterfinals. The fact that Atalanta had Sporting’s number in group play should also be encouraging, even with Atalanta’s recent dip in Serie A fortunes. The defensive lapses that struck Atalanta against Bologna simply cannot happen again.
Sporting vs Atalanta Final Score and Prediction
Serie A and the Portuguese first division are not all that comparable in terms of overall strength, and Atalanta has a better track record when it comes to advancing through Europa League play. While the loss to Inter was a big blow, I see Atalanta bouncing back and delivering on the road against Sporting CP. I predict a 1-1 draw with Atalanta holding that away goal in their pocket when they come back home for the second leg.
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