This Sunday will bring the NFC and AFC Championships, the last competitive NFL action until Super Bowl LVIII, set for February 11 in Las Vegas. In addition to wagering on the outcome of the game, some other sports betting props are out there that can add to your profits. Take a look at some of the NFL top bets we’ve picked off the books.
2024 NFL Conference Championship Betting Advice to Consider for both Matchups
Anytime Touchdown Scored (NFC Championship): Sam LaPorta
Detroit’s rookie tight end was tops in the league at his position in touchdown catches and fifth in receiving yards. In the postseason, he has a dozen catches and a touchdown in two games, including five red-zone targets. While the San Francisco defense does well against the pass, they are particularly strong against the deep ball, a weapon that the Lions don’t use as often as other teams. LaPorta’s out routes, slants and crossing routes should find open space against the Lions. While Jared Goff’s numbers are not as strong outside a domed stadium, the weather forecast for Sunday’s game has temperatures in the high 60s, with sunny conditions (until the sun goes down) and minimal wind. While it’s true that nine of LaPorta’s ten touchdowns in the regular season came at home, nine of those touchdowns also came in the first half, so he is striking early.
Bet on the NFC Championship to Win Today
Lamar Jackson OVER 63.5 rushing yards (AFC Championship)
Jackson has run for at least 70 yards in three of his last five contests and ran for 100 yards in the Ravens’ divisional round win over Houston. The Kansas City defense has not done well containing mobile quarterbacks this year; during the regular season, they permitted the ninth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus ranked the Chiefs fifth-last in success rate permitted on designed quarterback runs and zone-read looks. When the Chiefs played Buffalo last week, Josh Allen ran for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and Jackson ran for 107 yards and a pair of scores in the most recent Ravens-Chiefs game. The Chiefs were able to put the clamps on the Bills’ offense in the fourth quarter, but the Bills also got away from designed runs for Allen.
Bet on the AFC Championship to Win Today
Anytime Touchdown Scored (NFC Championship): George Kittle
The Detroit defense has permitted seven touchdown catches by tight ends this series, including Cade Otton’s reception for a score for Tampa Bay in the divisional round. Otton had five catches for 65 yards on the day. Kittle led the 49ers in receiving yards with 81 in the 49ers’ divisional round win over Green Bay. With San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel out, expect tKittle to get more opportunities. He has averaged seven targets per contest in the last three games and has been on the field for 85% of the team’s offensive plays. The Detroit secondary is in the league’s bottom five for pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus. Because the Lions stop the run so well, we expect Kittle to get plenty of targets and touches.
Bet on the NFC Championship to Win Today
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Longest Run OVER 13.5 yards (NFC Championship)
Gibbs is averaging 11.4 yards per touch in the postseason. Against Tampa Bay, he only had nine carries, but he picked up 74 yards, including a 31-yard score. The 49ers’ rush defense only had the 24th-best success rate during the regular season. In the divisional round, Green Bay tailback Aaron Jones gashed the 49ers for 108 yards on only 18 carries, including a 53-yard rumble. Gibbs is faster than Jones. The “over” on this prop has paid in 11 games in a row and 15 of 19 since he joined the NFL. During the regular season, Gibbs had 16 carries of at least 15 yards.
Bet on the NFC Championship to Win Today
NFL Conference Championship Info
Chiefs vs Ravens
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
When: Sunday, January 28, 3:00 PM
TV/Stream: CBS
Lions vs 49ers
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, January 28, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: FOX
Odds to Win the Super Bowl 58 Before the NFL Championship Games
| Team Odds | |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers +150 | Baltimore Ravens +180 |
| Kansas City Chiefs +375 | Detroit Lions +800 |
| Bet Super Bowl Lines | |
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The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles made getting the first-round bye in the NFL playoffs pay off, as both teams won at home to advance to the AFC and NFC Championships, respectively. The Chiefs won despite Patrick Mahomes suffering a high ankle sprain; Chad Henne came on to lead a clutch touchdown drive, and then Mahomes returned to do just enough to get the win. Since seeding started in 1975, top seeds have gone 32-14 in conference championship games. Even so, it is very rare for top seeds to meet in the Super Bowl; this has only happened five times in the last 28 seasons. Top seeds don’t always survive the divisional round, for one thing, which makes the gap between these two numbers less surprising than one might think. Kansas City is favored to beat Cincinnati by a point, while Philadelphia is a 2 ½-point favorite to knock off San Francisco. Looking for some NFL Playoffs betting advice on the two games? Read on to get our insights.
NFL Conference Championship – Sunday, January 29
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3:00 pm ET, FOX)
When the top two seeds in a conference collide, then the bracket has worked out as it was intended. Also, these two teams didn’t meet in the regular season, adding intrigue to the showdown. Jalen Hurts comes in with the more experienced quarterback, but he also continues to show that he is not at 100% from his shoulder sprain, as his longest throw down the field against the Giants only traveled 36 yards. Hurts does have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at wide receiver and tight end Dallas Goedert. While the 49ers have a less experienced quarterback in Brock Purdy, he continues to play mistake-free football, and he has tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel to make plays down the field. Tailback Christian McCaffrey rejuvenated the offense when he arrived as well.
The defense for Philadelphia will be just as tough as the one Dallas brought last week, and the Eagles’ unit was even better against the pass, limiting opponents to a league-best 5.5 net yards per passing attempt and just 3,057 yards through the air during the regular season. The Eagles grabbed 17 interceptions as well. The San Francisco defense permitted 6.4 yards per pass attempt and led the league in fewest rushing yards permitted per attempt (3.4), and they picked off 20 passes. Nick Bosa should be able to feast on Philadelphia offensive tackle Jordan Mailata, who was just 56th of 64 in pass block win rate during the season.
In terms of intangibles, Hurts comes in with a lot more experience in high-pressure situations, dating back to his time at Alabama and Oklahoma during the College Football Playoff, but also including time in the NFL. However, Purdy has not shown any drop in confidence, and he outplayed Dak Prescott – a quarterback entering his seventh season and who has a 2-4 playoff record – so that he already has as many postseason wins (2) as Prescott now. He stays in the pocket and works through his progressions, and he avoided poor decisions.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6:30 pm ET, CBS)
This line opened at Kansas City -2.5 and has shifted dramatically since then. Some of this may have to do with imbalance in the initial line as the books failed to recognize that Cincinnati has won three in a row over the Chiefs, with each victory coming by three points. Last year, the Bengals erased an 18-point deficit at Arrowhead Stadium and won in overtime to go to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is just 1-3 lifetime against the Bengals, and when the teams met in December, he was just 16 of 27 for 223 yards and a touchdown – his fewest completions in any game this season. Joe Burrow went 25 of 31 on the day, throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns and running for one more, and that made him the first quarterback ever to beat Burrow three times in a row. Burrow also has a pair of hot running backs in Samaji Perine (who ran for 106 yards in the win over the Chiefs) and Joe Mixon (who ran for 105 yards and a score against Buffalo in the divisional round.
It’s important to remember, though, that Mahomes is still an elite quarterback, even with a high ankle sprain, and if he can’t fight through it, Chad Henne came on and led the Chiefs on a 98-yard touchdown drive against Jacksonville last week. Tight end Travis Kelce is his safety valve with 14 catches against Jacksonville. Eight different defenders tried to cover him, but no one could keep the ball out of his hands. The Chiefs also have defensive tackle Chris Jones, who led the league in pass rush wins at that position on the season – and the Bengals still have three reserves starting on the O-line.
