2019 NFL MVP Odds, Predictions & Picks

One of the more interesting opportunities in futures wagering for sports betting enthusiasts, with respect to the National Football League, has to do with the Most Valuable Player award. This is based on performance during the regular season, even though the award is handed out during the postseason, and the defending champion, Patrick Mahomes II, the quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs, emerged as the favorite when the first lines came out. Quarterbacks tend to win it the vast majority of the time; the last non-quarterback to win was tailback Adrian Peterson for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012; the last time a player other than a quarterback or tailback won the MVP was 2003, when Victor Rodriguez, a defensive end for the Miami Dolphins won it. He is only one of two defensive players who have ever won the MVP, along with the Giants’ Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Between 1975 and 2018, quarterbacks and running backs have won all but three awards: those two defenders and the 1987 award, which went to wide receiver Jerry Rice. Take a look at the NFL MVP odds for this year’s winner as you consider your futures betting.

2019 NFL MVP Odds, Predictions & Picks

NFL MVP Odds

• Patrick Mahomes                                                                                                      +400
• Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck                                                                                 +800
• Carson Wentz, Drew Brees                                                                                     +1000
• Tom Brady                                                                                                                 +1200
• Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson                                                                                  +1400
• Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield                                                   +2500
• Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Ezekiel Elliott, Deshaun Watson                                +6000
• Jimmy Garoppolo, Matthew Stafford, Alvin Kamara,
• Christian McCaffrey, Kirk Cousins, Saquon Barkle                                             +8000 Dak Prescott, Le’Veon Bell, Sam Darnold, Sony Michel, Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, Von Miller, J.J. Watt, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Myles Garrett, Antonio Brown, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Julio Jones, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Marcus Mariota, Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr, Todd Gurley, Travis Kelce                                +10000

If we look at the top three, we see a player in Mahomes who threw 50 touchdown passes a year ago and led Kansas City to the top seed in the AFC — and to the brink of the Super Bowl, as the Chiefs fell to New England in overtime of the AFC Championship. Behind him are Aaron Rodgers, who has won the award twice already and seems poised for a bounceback season, and Andrew Luck, who had a resurgence in Indianapolis last year and could lead the Colts deep into the postseason — although inconsistency has plagued him throughout his career. The next two in the odds list are Drew Brees and Carson Wentz. Wentz has not played consistently since his knee injury two seasons ago, while Drew Brees seems poised for a monster season after a terrific 2018 in terms of numbers, and with the motivation of seeing his team’s season end in such a bizarre way in the NFC Championship. Next comes Tom Brady. Can he deliver an MVP season without Rob Gronkowski? Sure, the Patriots are likely to roll to another division title given the lack of competition in the AFC East, but will Brady have the numbers to compete with some of the other contenders? Russell Wilson is interesting but will need a solid running game to take the pressure off, and Philip Rivers throws too many interceptions at just the wrong time to win an MVP. Then we see Big Ben, Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield. We’ve already seen Matt Ryan blow a 25-point lead in a Super Bowl, and the reputation he has built as a quarterback who doesn’t finish big games has followed him. Ben Roethlisberger has made his locker room toxic by fighting with Antonio Brown. Of those three at +2500, I’m bullish on Baker Mayfield after seeing how he almost dragged the Browns to the playoffs all by himself, and now he has Odell Beckham Jr on the field with him as well. The non-quarterback with the best odds is Ezekiel Elliott, but rumors are swirling about him holding out — despite having two full seasons left on his contract. A potential sleeper is Jimmy Garoppolo, who looked like an elite quarterback in San Francisco until he went down to injury. Can he bounce back? You can make a lot of money if you bet on him and turn out to be right.