March Madness Sweet 16 Parlay Picks to Consider: Underdogs and Lights

March Madness Sweet 16 Parlay Picks to Consider: Underdogs and Lights

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament has already produced a number of huge payouts. Did you have Princeton taking down Arizona in the first round? Then you walked away with a big moneyline win. Did you have Florida Atlantic getting to the Sweet 16? That’s another hefty pile of cash for you. Another way of boosting your sports betting winnings involves winning parlays – stacking multiple bets together and getting even bigger odds on the outcomes. We have a few March Madness parlay picks for you to consider from the Sweet 16 round.


NCAA News: Sweet 16 Parlay Picks


Thursday Night Underdogs

Arkansas (+4) to cover, Kansas State (+1.5) to cover

Arkansas knocked 1-seed Kansas out of the tournament in the second round behind 25 points from Devo Davis, with 21 of those coming in the second half. The Razorbacks were down by a dozen at the half, but Davis put the team on his back and brought them back before fouling out with fewer than four minutes left in regulation. His fellow backcourt starter Ricky Council IV took over the game at that point, scoring 11 of the last 15 Arkansas points to finish with 21 on the night, going five of six from downtown.

Arkansas has a 2-1 record against 1-seeds in the last three versions of March Madness and scored 145 points combined in their first two games. They are shooting 43% overall and 33% from three-point land and have limited teams to 66 points per game and 40% overall shooting. They have a -12 turnover margin and a +16 rebounding margin, both positive numbers with Connecticut up next.

Kansas State is the underdog here, but only because Michigan State has a stronger reputation historically in the tournament, and the press is all about Tom Izzo getting his team to another Sweet 16. Kansas State had a sloppy showing at the Big 12 Tournament, where they got bounced by TCU in the first round, but they are 22nd in the nation in KenPom’s overall ratings, 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are also 21st in strength of schedule after making it through the Big 12 gauntlet. Their win over Kentucky in the second round should not have been much of a surprise – and it won’t be a surprise when they cover (and win straight up) against a Michigan State team punching above its weight class.


Friday Night Lights

Miami (+7.5) to cover, Princeton (+10) to cover

Houston dropped 50 on Auburn in their second-round win to turn a 10-point deficit into a laugher of a win, as Auburn only managed 23 points after the intermission. The Cougars put up 1.27 points per possession in the second half. Miami shredded a tough Indiana defense in their second-round win, putting up 1.23 points per possession and going 25 of 47 inside the arc.

Houston has won nine of their last 10 games, but they’ve only covered three times during that span. For the season, they have been the favorite in all 36 games but have only covered 19 times. Miami has covered in seven of nine games this year in which they’ve been an underdog. What this tells us is that the Cougars’ defense has a hard time getting stops, because Houston’s offense has been putting up big numbers all season long. If you wanted to add a third leg to this parlay, you could also have this game go over 138 points, which is likely given the offensive firepower on both sides.

If you’re a longtime March Madness fan, then you remember the days when Pete Carill would get Princeton into the Big Dance and even snatch a first-round win with that back-door offense that slowed the game down and frustrated faster teams. The Tigers still have that offense, but they also have a stout defense, which was on full display when they shut down Missouri from beginning to an end. Giving Creighton 10 ½ points here ignores Princeton’s performance in the first two rounds and gives the Bluejays a bit too much credibility.

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