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We are still making our way through the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but we have now seen enough from each team to get a clearer picture of who the genuine contenders might be. A few favorites have strengthened their case, while several dark horses have emerged as potential threats.
One of those dark horses was my pre-tournament longshot pick. I am not necessarily suggesting they will win the World Cup, but they look capable of making a deep run. Let’s take a look at the current odds for the top contenders, their strengths, their weaknesses, and an update on that dark horse selection.
France (+400)
After looking somewhat average during the opening 45 minutes of their tournament campaign, France appears to have shifted into another gear.
Kylian Mbappe already has four goals and looks every bit the world-class player we expected to see. France remains one of the most balanced teams in the tournament, with quality throughout the squad and very few obvious weaknesses.
My biggest concern is complacency. Against elite opponents, France cannot afford to coast through portions of a match and expect to survive.
^Spain (+510)
A scoreless draw against Cape Verde in the opening match created some early questions about Spain’s chances.
Those concerns eased considerably after a convincing 3-0 victory over Saudi Arabia in their second outing. While the result was encouraging, I still believe this Spanish squad looks slightly less dominant than some of the versions we have seen in recent tournaments.
Perhaps they are simply building momentum at the right time, but I am not quite as bullish on Spain as I was before the tournament began.
^England (+640)
You only need to look at England’s bench to understand the depth available to this squad.
Their 4-2 victory over Croatia generated plenty of excitement, particularly because of how dangerous they looked going forward. The attack is loaded with talent and capable of overwhelming opponents.
That said, Croatia appears to be an aging side that may no longer be among the tournament’s elite. I also have concerns about England defensively, and that could become their Achilles heel once the knockout rounds begin.
^Argentina (+650)
Any doubts about Lionel Messi’s ability to perform at the highest level have disappeared quickly.
Argentina has scored five goals in the tournament, with Messi responsible for all five. Equally impressive is a defense that has yet to concede a goal, giving this team a strong foundation on both ends of the field.
The one obvious concern is dependency. If Messi were unavailable, where would the goals come from? Argentina may be relying a little too heavily on their superstar.
^Portugal (+1175)
Portugal remains one of the most talented squads in the competition, but there are growing concerns surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo.
Unlike Messi, Ronaldo appears to be struggling to keep pace at this level. At times, the attack seems overly focused on creating opportunities for him rather than playing naturally.
The difficult decision to reduce his role—or even move him to the bench—may ultimately be necessary if Portugal hopes to maximize its chances of winning the World Cup.
^My Dark Horse: Norway (+2800)
Before the tournament started, I suggested Norway as a potential longshot worth monitoring.
So far, they have justified that attention. Norway has won both of its matches, and Erling Haaland has already scored four goals. They play an aggressive, entertaining style and have shown confidence throughout the group stage.
Their biggest test is still ahead, as they close out group play against France. I am not predicting Norway to lift the trophy, but a run into the latter stages of the tournament is certainly not out of the question.
For bettors looking beyond the favorites, Norway remains one of the more intriguing teams left in the field.
^World Cup Odds provided by Xbet
