It’s March Madness time! The selection committee has put together a bracket that pleased even fewer people than in normal years because of the high number of “bid thieves” who gained automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. Such schools as N.C. State and Oregon would likely not have made it into the tournament – and both of the AAC finalists, UAB and Temple, would likely have been sitting at home this week. UAB beat Temple, freeing the NCAA of the controversial possibility of a team associated with sports betting warnings (as Temple has been this year) making it to the Big Dance. Let’s break down some early tips as you consider your March Madness betting choices for the tournament.
2024 March Madness Betting Tips | College Basketball Odds
Start with the First Four
There are eight games on Tuesday, March 19, and Wednesday, March 20, that will actually populate the last four slots in the 64-team bracket. These “First Four” teams take a 68-team tournament and resolve it into a manageable bracket. Two of the matchups lead to an unenviable 16th seed, but the other two lead to a 10th seed that can turn into a surprise – such as UCLA rolling from the First Four all the way to the Final Four back in 2021. The 10-seed matchups are interesting: Colorado State vs Virginia on Tuesday and Colorado vs Boise State on Wednesday. CSU started out the season hot before struggling through the first half of conference play. They figured things out well enough down the stretch to earn an at-large bid in the First Four, and if they can get by a Virginia time that plays at a grindingly slow pace and prides itself on defense, then the Rams could make it to the second weekend. Colorado made a surprising run in the Pac-12 and went to the conference tournament final where they fell to Oregon by seven. Boise State is one of six teams from the Mountain West Conference that made it into the tournament (by contrast, the Big East only got three entries, all high seeds). We will see if the Broncos can cause teams from outside the MWC any fits during tournament play. I like Colorado State and Colorado to grab these 10-seeds and keep their postseason going into the weekend.
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Use your brackets wisely
There is a lot of commentary out there about how chaotic this year’s bracket will be. UConn was the only top-seven team to win its conference tournament; Houston set a record for the margin of defeat by a top-ranked team in a conference tournament game when Iowa State embarrassed them, 69-41, in the Big 12 finale. Use the process of filling out your bracket to help you sort out a lot of the tough choices. There are some intriguing 6-11 and 5-12 matchups that should reveal the problems that come when the tournament selection committee once again overvalues membership in a Power 5 conference and gives an undeserving team a seed somewhere between two (Arizona) and five (Wisconsin), setting the stage for upset potential in the first couple of rounds.
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Go from your brackets to your bets
It is possible to customize your futures wagers based on your bracket. For example, you can put down a parlay for your Final Four choices to make it; if you choose all four of the 1-seeds to get to the Final Four, those odds run around +4000 right now, depending on the book. You can also put down parlays on certain teams to reach the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight. You can use some early success to motivate some hedging bets later on; if you are close to winning a pool and getting a big jackpot, you could bet against that bracket in the later rounds to ensure that you walk away with some money.
March Madness Betting to Win Today
Cinderella does go to bed at midnight
It’s tempting to pick a lot of upsets and then have them go multiple rounds in this tournament. Let’s tap the brakes on that a bit. Since 2015, underdogs have done well, covering the spread 54% of the time. Underdogs seeded 9-13 since 2015 have gone 72-55-1 against the spread in the first round, covering 57% of the time. However, in the second round, underdogs have gone just 61-62-3 against the spread. In the Sweet 16, underdogs have gone 29-30-1. That’s still pretty close to 50%, but you need to get wiser in your picking and remember that it’s hard to catch lightning in a bottle more than once.
March Madness Odds to Win Today
2024 March Madness Schedule
| Round | City | Venue | Dates | Host |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Four | Dayton, Ohio | UD Arena | March 19 – 20 | University of Dayton |
| First/Second | Brooklyn. N.Y. | Barclays Center | March 22 -24 | Atlantic 10 Conference |
| First/Second | Charlotte, N.C. | Spectrum Center | March 21 – 23 | University of North Carolina at Charlotte |
| First/Second | Indianapolis | Gainbridge Fieldhouse | March 22 – 24 | IUPUI / Horizon League |
| First/Second | Omaha, Neb. | CHI Health Center | March 21 – 23 | Creighton University |
| First/Second | Pittsburgh | PPG Paints Arena | March 21 -23 | Duquesne University |
| First/Second | Salt Lake City | Vivint Smart Home Arena | March 21 – 23 | University of Utah |
| First/Second | Spokane, Wash. | Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena | March 22 – 24 | University of Idaho |
| First/Second | Memphis, Tenn. | FedExForum | March 22 – 24 | University of Memphis |
| East Regional | Boston | TD Garden | March 28 – 30 | Boston College |
| South Regional | Dallas | American Airlines Center | March 29 -31 | Big 12 Conference |
| Midwest Regional | Detroit | Little Caesars Arena | March 29 – 31 | University of Detroit Mercy / Oakland University |
| West Regional | Los Angeles | Crypto.com Arena | March 28 – 30 | Pepperdine University |
First Four in Dayton, Ohio
Tuesday, March 19
- #16 Wagner vs. #16 Howard | 6:40 p.m. | truTV
- #10 Colorado State vs. #10 Virginia | 9:10 p.m. | truTV
Wednesday, March 20
- #16 Grambling vs. #16 Montana State | 6:40 p.m. | truTV
- #10 Colorado vs. #10 Boise State | 9:10 p.m. | truTV
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