The Valspar Championship comes at an odd spot on the PGA Tour calendar, right after The Players, and right before a WGC and the Masters. Even so, the field is solid, and this event tends to produce fantastic finishes. At Tampa’s Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, the tournament brings the PGA Tour’s four-week swing through Florida to a close. Let’s take a look at the Golf betting odds for the contenders, with odds of +10000 or lower, as well as some suggestions for picks.
PGA News: Valspar Championship Preview
| Contender | Odds (+10000 or better) |
| Justin Thomas | +1000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1100 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1200 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2200 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +2400 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton | +2500 |
| Shane Lowry | +2900 |
| Abraham Ancer | +3400 |
| Brooks Koepka | +3500 |
| Jason Kokrak | +3600 |
| Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood | +4600 |
| Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland | +5000 |
| Jason Day | +5500 |
| Adam Hadwin | +6000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Kevin Kisner | +6600 |
| Alex Noren, Harold Varner, Russell Knox, Webb Simpson | +7000 |
| Aaron Wise, Cameron Tringale | +7500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +8000 |
| Brian Harman, Denny McCarthy | +9000 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | +10000 |
Sam Burns had a terrific turn at The Players Championship and was in position to take the win before faltering in the last round, pushed to Monday due to the weather. He also won the Valspar Championship in 2021 and has considerable history at Innisbrook. No other player in the field has played at least 10 rounds here while also gaining more than 2.0 strokes per round. In addition to the win in 2021, he has T12 and T30 finishes in his two other starts here. He offers value and comes in with momentum.
Dustin Johnson won the 2020 Masters and then went into a bit of a tailspin, but then he crept through the back door to finish in the top ten at The Players Championship, his first top ten since the Tour Championship in 2021. He also hit the course record at TPC Sawgrass last week with a final round of 63, and that result could push him back into elite performance. This isn’t the best course for his style of play, but he has done well here in the past.
Collin Morikawa missed the cut at The Players Championship, which doesn’t happen often. When he does miss a cut, he tends to bounce back in a big way in his next tournament. In 2020, he missed the cut at the Travelers Championship but then won the Workday Charity Open two weeks later. Innisbrook is a course that asks more for accuracy than for power, and Morikawa’s ball-striking over his last 20 rounds matches than just about anyone else. The question will come down to his putting, because when he is cooking on the greens, he ends up near the top of the leaderboard, if not winning outright.
Justin Thomas was rolling at The Players Championship through the middle of the day Saturday, but then things drifted a bit Sunday and Monday. His striking is elite right now, but he is still looking for a trophy. Only Viktor Hovland and Shane Lowry have better numbers from ball-striking over their last 20 rounds, and Thomas has two top-20 finishes in his last three starts at the Valspar Championship.
Russell Knox is an intriguing sleeper pick. In his ball-striking over the last 20 rounds, Knox is ranked just behind Thomas, and he had a terrific week at The Players Championship. He will benefit from the shorter course, and the odds are huge. He is also an intriguing pick for top ten or top 20, but if you want to put some money on some larger odds, he’s a pick to look at.
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