UFC 287 Betting Analysis: Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya

UFC 287 Betting Analysis: Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya

Written by on March 29, 2023

Alex Pereira will defend his UFC Middleweight title against former champion Israel Adesanya in a rematch that will sit at the top of the fight card at UFC 287, set for April 8 at Miami-Dade Arena. This will be just the second time UFC has hosted an event in Miami, and the first since UFC 42, way back in 2003. Pereira knocked Adesanya out in the fifth round at UFC 281 to take the belt, and Pereira has also beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing matchups, once in 2016 by decision and another in 2017 via knockout in the third round. We have the full fight card for you as you think about how to manage your UFC betting for this event.

 

UFC 287: An Early Preview for Main, Preliminary and Early Preliminary Cards

 

Main Card

  • Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya (UFC Middleweight Championship)
  • Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal (Welterweight)
  • Rob Font vs Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight)
  • Kevin Holand vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (Welterweight)
  • Raul Rosas Jr vs Christian Rodriguez (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card

  • Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Curtis (Middleweight)
  • Michelle Waterson vs Lauana Pinheiro (Women’s Strawweight)
  • Chris Barnett vs Chase Sherman (Heavyweight)

Early Preliminary Card

  • Gerald Meerschaert vs Joe Pyfer (Middleweight)
  • Cynthia Calvillo vs Lupita Godinez (Women’s Strawweight)
  • Ignacio Bahamondes vs Trey Ogden (Catchweight – 160 lbs)
  • Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs Steve Garcia (Featherweight)
  • Jacqueline Amorim vs Sam Hughes (Women’s Strawweight)
 

Alex Pereira

(7-1-0, +125) vs Israel Adesanya (23-2-0, -160) has Adesanya as the slight favorite despite the fact that he has never defeated Pereira. He was also the favorite at UFC 281. The chatter was that Adesanya would be able to overwhelm Pereira with the pace, wearing him out and then finishing him. It looked like things were going that way, as Adesanya landed a big right and a left just at the end of the first round. He was still ahead on points going into the fifth and final round, but then Pereira got home with a big left hook a couple of minutes in, and Adesanya clearly staggered. Pereira went on the attack and the referee had to stop the fight. How will it go this time? It’s hard to imagine Adesanya losing to the same fighter four straight times.

Gilbert Burns

(21-5-0, -450) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-16-0, +350) is Burns’ first right since a first-round submission win over Neil Magny in January. Before that, he lost on the cards to Khamzat Chimaev in April 2022. Masvidal has lost three in a row and hasn’t fought at all in over a year, thanks in part to his legal problems surrounding his dispute with Colby Covington. The difference in the fighters’ rankings and Masvidal’s long layoff have Burns as the heavy favorite. Burns will try to get the fight to the mat and end things early, while Masvidal may come out bringing the heavy striking game, hoping to end the fight with a big bomb.

Rob Font

(19-6-0, +150) vs Adrian Yanez (16-3-0, -175) is a matchup of strikers. Font has won eight times via TKO/KO, seven times on the cards and four times via submission. Yanez has ten knockout wins, four on the cards and two via submission. Font is two inches taller and has a 1 ½-inch advantage in terms of reach. Even so, he’s the underdog, which means there could be some value to exploit.

Kevin Holland

(23-9-0, -280) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0, +225) is Holland’s attempt to bounce back from a two-fight losing streak, as Stephen Thompson and Khamzat Chimaev have beaten him his last two times out. Ponzinibbio looks to build a streak after beating Alex Morono at UFC 282. Holland has 3 ½ inches on Ponzinibbio in height and eight inches in reach, huge advantages given that both fighters are strikers. Holland has 12 knockout wins in 23 total victories, while Ponzinibbio has 18 knockout wins among 29 victories.

 
 
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