PSV Eindhoven continues an excellent season in the Dutch Eredivisie, where they are 10 points clear of Feyenoord atop the table, and that play has carried over into the UEFA Champions League, where they continue a surprisingly deep run. They settled for a draw at home against Borussia Dortmund of the German Bundesliga in the first leg of their last-16 tie and now head to Dortmund to see if they can’t pull off what would be an upset – but not a shocking one. Dortmund currently sit in fourth place in their league, a whopping 20 points out of the lead, but they were able to figure things out and win their dauntingly tough Champions League berth and are now on the brink of the quarterfinals. Read on to get our online Champions League betting thoughts in this matchup.
2024 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Betting Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven, Second Leg
Aggregate tied, 1-1
When: Wednesday, March 13, 2024, 3:00 pm ET
Where: Westfalenstadion, Dortmund, Germany
Live Stream: Paramount+
Champions League Betting Odds: PSV Eindhoven +200 / Draw +275 / Borussia Dortmund +115 / O/U 3.5 Goals
Why should you bet on PSV?
Eindhoven has already won a tough road game this week, beating Go Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie play, 1-0, this past weekend. In the first leg against Dortmund, Eindhoven had to weather a storm for the first 20 minutes that saw Dortmund take an early 1-0 lead. The good news is that the hosts were able to reverse the momentum for the rest of the match, controlling possession and keeping the solid scoring opportunities for themselves. Their pressure game disrupted Dortmund’s passing and possession, despite the fact that Dortmund has the fourth-best pass completion rate in the Bundesliga. Outside the work that Donyell Malen did in the first leg (including Dortmund’s only goal), Dortmund basically did nothing in the penalty area.
While Dortmund have only permitted 31 goals in Bundesliga play, they have permitted 38.2 expected goals according to Action Network, which is about 1.5 per match – a number that ranks 10th among 18 Bundesliga teams. They did win their group, but they had a negative expected goal differential and permitted 10.6 expected goals in six matches. The problem for PSG and AC Milan in group play was that they just failed to finish chances. The chances will be there for Eindhoven to finish as well.
PSV Eindhoven Betting Lines to Win
Why should you put your money on Dortmund?
Dortmund also has the momentum of a domestic league win coming into the second leg of this last-16 tie as they welcomed Werder Bremen and finished with a 2-1 victory. Looking at their head-to-head numbers against Eindhoven, Dortmund is unbeaten in their last four meetings, with two wins and two draws. Eindhoven has a 16-match winless streak on the road against German sides in european competitions. The last time they won a match in Germany in this type of competition was back in 1977, when they went to Eintracht Braunschweig and emerged victorious. Borussia Dortmund has never failed to advance in Champions League ties where they played away in the first leg and either won or drew.
The good news for Dortmund is that Eindhoven did a poor job finishing chances in the first leg, just like PSG and AC Milan did in group play. That luck will eventually run out, but will it be Eindhoven that takes advantage, given their lack of experience this deep into the Champions League? Watch for Hirving Lozano and Malik Tillman and see how they use the chances they are given. Sergino Dest did a terrific job bringing the ball forward and then sending it across, so we will see if Eindhoven can finish.
Borussia Dortmund Betting Lines to Win
Dortmund vs PSV Final Score and Prediction
Dortmund will not have center back Nico Schlotterbeck for this leg, and Eindhoven should have some confidence coming from their draw at home. Eindhoven have 80 goals in 25 matches in Eredivisie play and have an unbeaten season going – 22 wins and three draws. Given the vulnerabilities that Dortmund’s defense has shown, I’m going with the value and the road win. I predict a final score of Eindhoven 2, Dortmund 1.
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2024 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Round of 16
March 5, 2024
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig UEFA Champions League Odds for Round of 16
The second leg of the Round of 16 tie between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig is set for Wednesady at the Bernabeu. The first leg took place three weeks ago and saw Real pick up a crucial away goal thanks to a blast from Brahim Diaz. That lone goal stood as the difference-maker in the 1-0 victory. RB Leipzig blew a number of glorious scoring chances, but their defense was able to keep Real from turning the match into a laugher in the last third of the game. Can Leipzig turn things around on the road, or will Real blow through to the quarterfinal round? Don’t miss our soccer betting preview of this Champions League clash.
UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Betting Analysis: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig, Second Leg
Real Madrid leads aggregate, 1-0
When: Wednesday, March 6, 2024, 3:00 pm ET
Where: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
TV: Univision / Paramount+
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: TUDN App
Champions League Betting Odds: Real Madrid -1 (Totals U +105) // Leipzig +1 (Totals O -125)
Why should you bet on RB Leipzig?
Since returning home from the first leg, Real Madrid have not looked all that dominant. They settled for yet another draw in La Liga action on Saturday, leaving Valencia with just the single point. Jude Bellingham had what looked like the game-winner, but the referee controversially blew the final whistle in what looked like the middle of the resolution of a set-piece. Both Barcelona and Girona also coughed up points, so the damage isn’t fatal, but this isn’t the dominant Real Madrid of seasons past.
Leipzig dealt Bochum a 4-1 thrashing over the weekend and are currently dueling with Borussia Dortmund for fourth place in the Bundesliga table. They beat Borussia Monchengladbach, 2-0, at home in their first match after their first clash with Real but took a 2-1 beating on the chin from Bayern Munich on the road before routing Bochum. The team will miss Mohamad Simakan, who got his third yellow card in this Champions League cycle during the first leg and will serve his suspension on Wednesday. Benjamin Henrichs will appear at right-back instead of Simakan. Lukas Klostermann (hip) will not play either.
Why should you put your money on Real Madrid?
Since the first leg of this tie, Real Madrid’s other action has also been somewhat unimpressive. They also drew 1-1 at Rayo Vallecano shortly after their return from Leipzig. In between, they held on to edge Sevilla at home, 1-0. Bellingham was issued a red card after his vehement (and profanity-laced) dissent after seeing his goal waved off against Valencia, but since that came in La Liga action, it has no impact on his availability for Champions League play.
Real Madrid could easily have won by a 2-0 or 3-0 score last week. With that said, Leipzig also spit the bit on a number of chances as Benjamin Sesko could have had a couple of goals in the early going. Real will need to lock down that defense in the early going this time around. Leipzig has the advantage of speed up top and creative thinking, and their scheme could find cracks in a Real XI that relies heavily on individual skill.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Final Score and Prediction
Leipzig brings the higher ceiling when it comes to speed and creativity, but Madrid has the higher level of experience when it comes to locking down this type of second-leg match. I see Leipzig pushing the action early, but I see Madrid taking advantage of mistakes and winning, 2-1.
