One interesting factor about NFL point spreads is that they have a much longer life span than point spreads in a lot of other sports. Sports betting websites and casinos actually set them during the off-season, and then they go through some adjustments after the previous week’s action. After that, there can be a significant amount of balancing as the action pours in on one side or the other.
Let’s take a look at some NFL point spreads going into Week 4 that still offer some room for profit.
NFL News: Week 4 Must-Bet Games
Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5)
Yes, Denver is 3-0. However, their three victories have come against Jacksonville, the Jets and the Giants — teams with a combined 0-3 record. All three are going through rebuilds, and they either have a rookie quarterback or a young signal-caller (in the case of the Giants) still trying to prove that he is the future running the offense. It’s also true that Baltimore laid an egg against Detroit last week and had to convert a fourth-and-19 and then rely on Justin Tucker to nail a 66-yard field goal to beat a dreadful Lions team. However, the Ravens had a lot of players out with injury, and a letdown after beating Kansas City was to be expected.
Teddy Bridgewater has gotten off to a terrific start with Denver, but going from three games against teams who will be dueling for the league’s worst record to a regular playoff contender is a significant change. The Ravens should be ready to deliver a statement after that narrow escape in Detroit. On both offense and defense, the Ravens have talent levels that the Broncos have yet to reach. Ravens to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (55)
Kansas City comes in with an uncharacteristic 1-2 record, but they started with Cleveland, Baltimore and the Chargers. It took a mammoth comeback to take down Cleveland, and all three of these teams are likely to be in the playoffs this season. They head to Philadelphia after a tough loss to the Chargers and should certainly be ready to work out some frustrations.
Philadelphia has been very inconsistent so far this season. They rocked Atlanta for 60 minutes in their opener, but since then losses to San Francisco and to Dallas have shown regression on offense and some holes in the defense, particularly in the running game. It’s hard to imagine Kansas City failing to take this team apart, as the Chiefs have a week to establish their defense against a struggling Eagles attack. Chiefs to win and cover.
N.Y. Giants (+8) at New Orleans Saints (43.5)
This is a very low point total in the NFL, but neither team has done all that much on offense with long fields. The Giants hung 29 on Washington in a losing effort, but they benefited from turnovers and short fields. The same is true of New Orleans, who scored 28 against New England and 35 against Green Bay, but again, turnovers fueled the offense. The Giants’ offense lost Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard to injuries, but the defense did show up to slow down the Atlanta offense. Can the Saints beat the Giants by more than eight points? They should be able to, but that offense is not all that reliable yet. Take the under.
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