NFL New Orleans Saints Odds: Offense In-Depth Betting Analysis

In 2022, the New Orleans Saints had a top-ten defense, but their offensive inconsistencies paved the way to a 7-10 record that included two losses to a dreadful Carolina team. Their defense held Brock Purdy’s San Francisco juggernaut to 13 points, but the Saints couldn’t muster a single point. They finished with three wins in four games as the defense clamped down on Atlanta, Cleveland and a Philadelphia team playing a backup quarterback (but which had dropped 34 points on Dallas in a crazy loss with that same backup the week before).

Offensive improvements should put the Saints back in the playoff picture, but can Derek Carr handle the pressure?

Don’t miss our thoughts about the Saints offense ahead of one of the most popular NFL sports betting seasons of the year. 

NFL News: An In-depth Analysis of the New Orleans Saints Offense

Head coach Dennis Allen wanted the Saints to be a run-first team that established a grinding rhythm, to go along with a defense that was tough to gain yards against. The defensive part came through, but the offense never really came to fruition. Adding Derek Carr should allow the passing game to get back to where Drew Brees had it during the Saints glory days of the past decade or so.

Carr was fifth in the NFL in intended air yards (9.3), according to Next Gen Stats. Carr was also in the league’s top ten in completions of at least 20 yards in each of the last three years. He likes to attack with the deep ball, and sometimes that pays off – and sometimes it ends up with a head-scratching pick. He will have Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed running routes; both of these receivers broke out last year and have the speed to stretch the field. Olave was sixth among all qualifying tight ends and wide receivers with 14.2 targeted air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. That number works well with Carr’s intended air yards and Shaheed’s ability to make big plays down the field.

The Saints also resigned Juwan Johnson at tight end and brought in Foster Moreau to join the position group. Moreau knows Carr well, and both tigh ends can both block well and catch passes down the field. Lucas Krull and Jesse James will also add veteran savvy to the position. Then there’s Taysom Hill, the Swiss Army-knife player who can contribute at tight end, tailback or even quarterback on plays that keep the defense from guessing what will happen next. As a starting quarterback, Hill has had a difficult time winning consistently, but when he comes in for a play or two here or there, the uncertainty as to what he will do with the ball tends to make good things happen for the Saints.

Alvin Kamara returns as one of the most dominant pass-catching tailbacks in the league, and adding Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, a rookie, will increase Carr’s ability to find tailbacks with a quick pass. Miller caught just 29 passes at TCU, but the Saints have long been solid at developing tailbacks into pass-catchers. Two examples are Latavius Murray and Mark Ingram, who feasted on defenses with screen passes and checkdowns.

A lot of the answers about the Saints’ offense, of course, will come down to how Carr performs. It was surprising to see the Raiders basically jettison the talented veteran with a few weeks left in the regular season, giving the offense to Jarrett Stidham, but Carr has a mixed resume as far as long-term success goes because of his decision-making. He has a history of leading long drives and then throwing interceptions down in the red zone and of forcing balls down the field into double and triple coverage, with those picks ending drives. That is a trend that he will have to reverse with the Saints.

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New Orleans Saints Offensive Positions