Early Super Bowl 58 Preview: NFL Betting Analysis for the Chiefs vs 49ers Game

Early Super Bowl 58 Preview: NFL Betting Analysis for the Chiefs vs 49ers Game

Written by on January 30, 2024

After two thrilling conference championships, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers are headed to Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58, set for Sunday, February 11. The 49ers opened as 2 ½-point favorites, despite the fact that their defense struggled to stop the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions at home, while the Chiefs clamped down on the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens in road wins. Let’s take an early look at this matchup as you start to plan your Super Bowl betting strategy for one of the most popular sporting events on the planet.

NFL Early Betting Analysis: Who Wins the Super Bowl 58?


Both of these teams have plenty of experience playing in these monumental games – the Chiefs are going to their fourth title game in the last five years. The 49ers will make their eighth appearance in a Super Bowl – and look to win their first since 1994.

These teams met in Super Bowl LIV, and the Chiefs turned an early double-digit deficit into a big win. If the Chiefs can win this time, they would become the first team to win repeat Super Bowls since the New England Patriots pulled it off in 2003-04. Patrick Mahomes is the youngest quarterback ever to start his fourth Super Bowl, and head coach Andy Reid is preparing for his fifth. Only Don Shula (6) and Bill Belichick (9) have appeared in more.

The 49ers have a problem that most teams would love to have – they have gone to the NFC Championship seven times since 2011. However, they haven’t gotten a single Super Bowl title over that stretch. Coming in, we see that they have stars with experience, with nine players chosen for the Pro Bowl and a dozen more named alternates. Seven players either made first or second-team All-Pro. Eight players got meaningful playing time in Super Bowl LIV. In the regular season, they won 12 games by an average margin of 19 points. However, the 49ers have never beaten the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, including a three-touchdown beating on October 23, 2022, and that letdown in Super Bowl LIV.

Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Picks
Odds Subject to Change
Kansas +1.5 +100 U 47.5
San Francisco -1.5 -120 O 47.5


The Chiefs see Mahomes take things up a notch in the postseason. In his last six playoff games, he has a 70% pass completion rate, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt while throwing 11 touchdown passes without an interception. The rest of the offense is perking up as they had eight plays of at least 20 yards in their win over Buffalo in the divisional round. However, the Chiefs’ success has come in spite of some sloppy plays. Mecole Hardman touched the ball twice against the Bills and fumbled both times, including one that went through the end zone for a touchback, allowing the Bills to keep things close. Things were less sloppy against the Ravens, so maybe the Chiefs have already solved this issue.

The 49ers appear to have the edge in their receiving group. Brandon Aiyuk leads all receivers in ESPN’s catch score (96), and Deebo Samuel is tops in yards after catch score (83). George Kittle has the top overall score for tight ends (84). Don’t forget Christian McCaffrey coming out of the backfield. How can any one defense stop all four of those options?

The Chiefs appear to have the better defense – and Mahomes has been an elusive playmaker. Mahomes has the second lowest sack rate in the NFL, behind Josh Allen, and his scrambling also ranks second in estimated points added (EPA) per attempt, also behind Allen.

I picked the Chiefs to go down in the divisional round, but then their defense absolutely put the clamps on the Buffalo offense. I was more on the fence for the AFC Championship, but the Chiefs’ defense may have played an even more complete game in shutting down the Ravens. Given the problems that the 49ers’ defense had with the Packers and Lions, it’s hard to see them stopping the Chiefs – and I also don’t see the Chiefs making the same crucial mistakes that Green Bay and Detroit did.

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Analysis To Win Super Bowl 58 the next 2023/24 Season

NFL Betting Odds, News & Early Analysis To Win Super Bowl 58 the next 2023/24 Season

Now that the confetti has been cleaned away and all 32 NFL teams have conducted their exit interviews and headed into the off-season, it’s time to think about sports betting odds of winning Super Bowl LVIII. We’re still in the middle of a merry-go-round as far as coaches and quarterbacks are concerned. One is Derek Carr, who turned down a trade from Las Vegas to New Orleans and was granted his release, and who went through a workout with the New York Jets. Another is Aaron Rodgers, who is going through what now seems like a yearly bit of self-exploration to see whether he wants to play at all, and if he does, where. The Packers seem ready to turn the keys of the offense over to Jordan Love, so it will be interesting to see what happens. Let’s go through each team’s current Super Bowl odds and talk about some key updates.

Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs+600
Buffalo Bills +850
San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles +900
Dallas Cowboys +1500
Baltimore Ravens +1600
L.A. Chargers +2000
Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, N.Y. Jets +2500
Miami Dolphins, L.A. Rams +3000
Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos +3500
N.Y. Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders +4000
Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots +5500
Seattle Seahawks +6000
Chicago Bears +6500
Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons +7500
Indianapolis Colts, Arizona Cardinals +18000
Houston Texans +20000

Kansas City got a nearly flawless performance out of Patrick Mahomes in their Super Bowl win, but that came thanks in large part to a perfect performance from his O-line. The Eagles came in with a fearsome pass rush but did not sack Mahomes once. Some of that ad to do with Mahomes’ mobility, but remember that he was still hobbled a bit from that high ankle sprain. The Chiefs are here to stay, after hosting five straight AFC Championships, appearing in three of the last four Super Bowls, and winning two of them.

Philadelphia got a performance for the ages from Jalen Hurts in Super Bowl LVII. They led the Chiefs in all the metrics that don’t matter (time of possession and total yards, to begin with) but did not hold the lead in the one that counts (points). They became just the second team ever to surrender a double-digit halftime lead in a Super Bowl (the other being the infamous 28-3 Atlanta Falcons), and their gaffes were enormous. Hurts simply dropped a ball while attempting a bootleg, which turned into a scoop-and-score for the Chiefs, and Kadarius Toney returned a punt 65 yards for the Chiefs to set up their last touchdown. Miles Sanders had a scoop-and-score fumble of his own turned into an incompletion on a play that would have handed the Chiefs another touchdown. The Eagles should head into 2023’s regular season with plenty of motivation, but we will see if that just turns into another Super Bowl hangover.

Cincinnati is about to have some salary cap issues as the team looks to turn Joe Burrow from a rookie deal into a major extension. Keeping tailback Joe Mixon, wide receiver Ty Boyd and right tackle La’el Collins could all be problems. The offensive line injuries for the Bengals weren’t a problem against Buffalo in the divisional round, but they were huge issues against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

San Francisco returns as a team of intrigue – especially since they don’t have a quarterback set yet. Jimmy Garoppolo is a free agent and most likely will be shopping for a new home after he played well in 2022 – until he broke his foot. Brock Purdy looked like the preemptive starter for next year until he blew a UCL in his elbow in the NFC Championship. So that leaves Trey Lance, who started 2022 as the starter until a Week 1 injury ended his season.