Pro days and combines add intrigue to the NFL draft every spring. Last year, it was the cannon arm of Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson that, in large part, inspired the Indianapolis Colts to make him the franchise signal-caller of the future. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr may have accomplished something similar at the University of Washington pro day. On his last throw, he threw a deep ball that went 75 yards in the air – and hit his receiver in stride. Even though Washington’s offense fell apart down the stretch against Michigan in the national championship game back in January, Penix’s talent was obvious. A metric that may have been even more impressive than the bomb was his time in the 40-yard dash. His time was between 4.56 and 4.59 seconds, depending on the scout. Penix believes he is a “4.4 guy,” but the times that he earned should quell the doubts that many had after last season, when he only ran for eight yards on 35 attempts. He didn’t run the 40 at the NFL combine last month and only ran one time on Thursday. At the combine, he also posted a broad jump of 10 feet, 5 inches, and a 36 ½-inch vertical leap. Both of those numbers were better than those of any other quarterback at the pro combine. He threw 36 touchdown passes in the 2023 season, leading Washington to the national championship game. He is expected to go in one of the first two rounds in the draft, set for the end of this month. As we look ahead to the NFL draft, let’s look at some ways you can turn the event into some sports betting profits.
NFL Betting Analysis: 2024 Draft Betting Opportunities
How do the odds work?
The player favored to go in the first overall draft pick is quarterback Caleb Williams out of USC. He won the Heisman Trophy two years ago; the problems keeping USC out of the College Football Playoff have much more to do with their lack of elite defense than any shortcomings that Williams might have brought. The Chicago Bears traded up to get the top pick, and most books have Williams in the –4000 range. Those odds changed dramatically after the Bears shipped Justin Fields, their most recent “quarterback of the future” to Pittsburgh. We know that the Bears need a quarterback, so the next two betting choices are also quarterbacks — Jayden Daniels from LSU and Drake Maye from North Carolina, both sitting at +1600.
If you bet on Williams to go first, you would have to put down $4000 to win $100 and walk away with $4100. If you go with Daniels or Maye, though, you would only have to put down $100 to win $1600 and walk away with $1700. Because Williams is such a heavy favorite, there’s really no value in wagering on him. The upside of a win is fairly small, in relative terms, compared to what you lose if the Bears somehow flip the script. Of course, given that the Bears haven’t managed to bring in and nurture a franchise-level quarterback since Jim McMahon, anything is possible.
What other positions offer value in the draft?
Wide receivers and offensive linemen can often come in and make a difference from the first week of the regular season. Teams need playmakers at wide receivers, and they need offensive linemen, particularly tackles, who can provide pass protection. Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison has -250 odds to go fourth. LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers has +150 odds to go to the Chargers with the fifth pick. However, Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze (+500) and Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt (+440) both have relatively low odds to go in the top five.
Who are some picks that make the most sense?
Let’s look at some picks that would really benefit the teams that make them.
In the AFC, Baltimore would do well to get OT Tyler Guyton out of Oklahoma at No. 30. Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley has missed an average of nine games per season over the last four years due to injury, and right tackle Morgan Moses got shipped tot he Jets. Guyton did the three-cone drill at the combine in just 7.5 seconds.
Buffalo shipped Stefon Diggs to Houston in a deal that left their general manager a little salty about the return, indicating that Diggs had them over a barrel. Now the team needs to reload at wide receiver, and WR Brian Thomas Jr out of LSU would make sense. He could run deep routes like Gabe Davis used to, and Curtis Samuel, who came over in free agency, could be the safety valve.
Cincinnati needs an offensive tackle; after all, Trent Brown came to town to compete for the starting job on the right side, but his history of going down to injury suggests the necessity of adding a beast at that position. J.C. Latham out of Alabama can both run-block and protect the passer.
Cleveland doesn’t have a first-round draft pick, but they could still come out of this draft winners. LB Payton Wilson out of N.C. State ran a 4.43 40 and had 138 tackles last year. If he makes it to #54, where the Browns currently pick, he would be a bargain. Alongside Jordan Hicks and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Wilson would make a scary second level to the Browns’ defense.
Could Denver take Michael Penix Jr? He does have a history of injury, which may explain the small number of rushing attempts this season, but the Broncos need a quarterback, and Sean Payton has already shown he can build an elite line around a quarterback in New Orleans.
Jacksonville could use some additions on both lines after locking up linebacker Josh Allen with a five-eyar deal. OL Troy Fautanu out of Washington has the versatility to fill in at multiple positions in his rookie year if injuries take out a starter. Both of the starting tackles in Jacksonville, Walker Little and Cam Robinson, will be free agents after this season, so he would be a natural to fill in long-term.
In the NFC, Chicago also has the ninth pick in the first round. What better to pair with a rookie quarterback than a rookie wideout? WR Rome Odunze would join Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore to make the best trifecta of Chicago wide receivers that I can remember. Odunze matches the agility and strength in an outside route-runner that the Bears thought Chase Claypool would bring them.
Dallas appears to be doing two things at once, which usually ends poorly because you don’t do either one well. They are challenging head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott to go out and win a Super Bowl despite having less talent than they had last year. RB Jonathon Brooks out of Texas could be the playmaker the team needs after seeing Tony Pollard leave via free agency and deciding not to call Derrick Henry. Brooks had knee surgery in November, so he’s the kind of calculated risk that Jerry Jones loves to take.
Minnesota was happy to let Kirk Cousins walk via free agency, and he went to Atlanta and got a big contract. QB Bo Nix could walk in at the 11th overall pick and look a lot like Cousins. The two share a lot of physical attributes, and Nix has a fiercely competitive nature and a ton of experience in high-leverage games.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 59 – Top 10 in the NFL Draft Picks
- San Francisco 49ers +525
- Kansas City Chiefs +600
- Baltimore Ravens +900
- Buffalo Bills +1200
- Detroit Lions +1200
- Cincinnati Bengals +1400
- Dallas Cowboys +1500
- Houston Texans +1500
- Philadelphia Eagles +1600
- Miami Dolphins +2000
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