2018 Final Four Betting: Kansas Analysis, Odds and Predictions

According to The Sporting News, the Kansas Jayhawks have just a 14.21% chance of winning the national championship. They have to beat Villanova first and then take down the winner of Michigan and Loyola-Chicago to cut down the nets in San Antonio. While Kansas did win their 14th consecutive regular season title in the Big 12 (and then followed it up with a conference tournament title to boot), there are several questions Kansas to answer. Check out our Final Four betting analysis of the Jayhawks’ chances.

2018 Final Four Betting: Kansas Analysis, Odds and Predictions

Lawrence ✈️ San Antonio This is exactly where we wanted to be. #FinalFour pic.twitter.com/Kcx0nxVys1

— Kansas Basketball (@KUHoops) March 28, 2018

What flaws do the Jayhawks have?

It’s important to remember that Kansas lost as many home games this season (3) as they have in the past five seasons combined. One of those was an early loss to Texas Tech in Big 12 play. In most of nonconference play and through the first half of Big 12 play, Kansas looked like they were in big trouble. They wouldn’t drive to the basket, settling for jump shots instead, and so they didn’t get to the free throw line. They still don’t have a lot of depth inside, and their starting center, Udoka Azubuike, bricks his free throws and gets in foul trouble.

Why should we bet on Kansas?

On February 10, Kansas lost to Baylor, a tough team in the Big 12 but by no means on the level where Kansas saw themselves. At that point, coach Bill Self publicly announced that he was sending sophomore Malik Newman to the bench, starting freshman Marcus Garrett instead. Newman had spent the Baylor game hoisting up jump shots, going just 5 for 16. At that point in time, Self said he was looking for more toughness and leadership out of his starting five, and he didn’t think Newman was at a point to contribute that. After that, Newman has looked like a new player. He was a McDonald’s All-American and is still projected to go in the first round of the upcoming NBA draft. Since that loss to Baylor, Newman has averaged 18.1 points per game and made 51.3% of his shots from behind the arc. That’s an improvement of 7.5 points and 15.1% in shooting accuracy per game. He absolutely exploded against Duke in the Elite Eight matchup, putting up a career-best 32 points — 13 of them in overtime, all the offense Kansas would put up in an extra frame that would end Duke’s season. On the other end of the floor, Newman played the sort of lockdown defense that Self knew was possible when he talked about sending Newman to ride the pine. And while Newman is a superstar, he’s not Kansas’ only solid weapon — he’s not even the team’s best contributor. That would be Devonte’ Graham. He’s the clutch shooter when the team needs a basket badly, and as long as Azubuike can control his fouls and play solid interior defense, Kansas has the weapons on both offense and defense to win this thing. However, Azubuike has not controlled his fouling in the postseason. He has fouled out twice, and he picked up four in the win over Rhode Island, so he’s only played about 25 minutes per game. Villanova has talented big men who will exploit Azubuike’s tendency to pick up bad fouls, and once he heads to the bench, Villanova will be able to score inside.

Final Prediction

So if you like Kansas, you see them getting yet another outstanding game from Newman, getting another consistently superior game from Graham, and getting discipline on the defensive end from Azubuike. It will be a tall order for the Jayhawks, and I predict that they will lose to Villanova in the national semifinal. It’s been a terrific run for Kansas, especially since the emergence of Newman, and he will go on to the NBA and do great things, but I just don’t see this Jayhawks team getting past the Wildcats.