Yankees vs Red Sox ALDS Game 1 Lines & Pick

The New York Yankees made it through their wild card matchup against the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday night, as starter Luis Severino went four shutout innings, and Dellin Betances threw two more shutout frames to secure the win. Both Giancarlo Stanton (who had had a dreadful September) and Aaron Judge hit long balls to deliver the win. Now they advance to the American League Division Series to face the Boston Red Sox, winners of 108 games, a best in team history. A lot of prognosticators think that the Yankees are more dynamic offensively than the Red Sox and will win this series despite the fact that Boston won the season series, 10-9, and beat New York by eight games in the Eastern Division standings. Take a look at our predictions for the series opener as you plan your MLB betting for the weekend ahead.

Yankees vs Red Sox ALDS Game 1 Lines & Pick

It just seems like the @Yankees and @RedSox are drawn to one another … They meet TONIGHT. created #withGalaxy Note9 by @SamsungMobileUS pic.twitter.com/rBngG54aLf

— MLB (@MLB) October 5, 2018

When: Friday, October 5, 2018, 7:32pm ET Where: Fenway Park, Boston TV: TBS Radio: Westwood One Live Stream: MLB.tv MLB Odds: N.Y. Yankees +170 / Boston -180 / O/U 8 Projected Pitching Matchup: J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA) (NY) vs Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) (BOS) 

Why should you bet on the Yankees?

J.A. Happ will start on Friday night for the Pinstripes. He faced the Red Sox four times this season, twice with Toronto and twice as a Yankee. He pitched 22 ⅔ innings in those starts, allowing 11 runs (but just six earned) combined, striking out 25 batters while walking six. As a lefty pitching in Fenway Park, he is particularly vulnerable to long balls going over the Green Monster, but he has done a solid job all year long keeping the balls down and getting hitters to ground out instead of lifting balls into the air. The New York offense should be the most dominant in all of baseball, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez anchoring a talented lineup that also includes Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit and Aaron Hicks. They had some yips at different points through the season, but they have the bats to dominate Boston — if they can break through against Sale, and if Happ can hold the line. If you like the Yankees here, you think the Baby Bombers have aged enough to take down the American League East champs.

Why should you put your money on the Red Sox?

Chris Sale earned a reputation as the Boston ace this season, and he showed his stuff against the Yankees in two showdowns. He faced them at home on April 10 and at Yankee Stadium on June 30, picking up two of his 12 wins on the season. He threw 13 combined innings, allowing one earned run on nine hits, striking out 19 and walking just one. Down the stretch, he came off the disabled list in September and saw his outings lengthen, leaving him ready for a full-length start against the Yankees. He struggled some against Baltimore on September 26, after the Red Sox had already clinched, but held the Mets and the Indians to just two earned runs over 6 ⅓ innings combined in his prior post-rehab starts. The Boston offense thrived with the addition of J.D. Martinez to the lineup. They scored 5.41 runs per game, batting .268 as a team, both numbers leading MLB. They hit 208 home runs and swiped 125 bases. If you like the Red Sox here, you’ll enjoy the stat that has the Yankees just winning twice in their last eight games against Boston at Fenway Park.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Baseball benefits when the Red Sox and Yankees are playing well and contending for titles, and this series will be one of the most watched in recent years. I like both offenses, and I like the seasons that Sale and Happ have both had. The Red Sox have done just enough better under pressure than the Yankees have for me to pick them here, particularly at home. I predict a 6-4 Boston win.