Yankees vs Astros 2019 ALCS Game 1 Odds & Preview

The Houston Astros saw their American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays go the distance after winning the first two — in part because of the disappointing performance from Zack Greinke, who will start the ALCS opener against New York. After Tampa Bay beat Greinke, they also beat Justin Verlander, leaving it to Gerrit Cole to button up the series, which he did in Game 5, throwing eight solid innings. The New York Yankees have had plenty of time to rest — but they still have yet to select a starter for the series opener. New York steamrolled the Minnesota Twins in their American League Division Series, winning all three games by a combined score of 23-7. Have the Yankees had too long to rest? Or will they simply keep hitting against the Astros? We have your MLB betting preview for the ALCS opener.

Yankees vs Astros 2019 ALCS Game 1 Odds & Preview

Two giants. One epic rematch. RT if you are fired up for the #ALCS. pic.twitter.com/rG1UDYWDMh

— MLB (@MLB) October 12, 2019

When: Saturday, October 12, 2019, 8:08 pm ET Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston TV: FOX Radio: ESPN Radio Live Stream: ESPN+ MLB Odds: Houston -125 / New York +160 Projected Pitching Matchup: Undecided (NY) vs Zack Greinke (0-1, 14.73 ERA) (HOU)

Why should you bet on the Yankees?

It is harder to handicap this game from the Yankees’ side that it might otherwise be, because the team has not yet picked a starter. Luis Severino looked solid in Game 3, going four innings without permitting a run and fanning four, and the Yankees could activate C.C. Sabathia as well. James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are also possible options. Until we know who the starting pitcher is, though, it is hard to gauge how well the Yankees’ first few innings will go. They do have a solid bullpen and, as a pitching staff, have a .218 opponents’ batting average, a 2.33 combined ERA and 35 strikeouts combined. The Yankees will have Zack Greinke on the hill opposite them. Greinke has a career trend of putting up terrific, ace-level numbers in the regular season but then falling apart in the postseason, and he did just that in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. He simply cannot give up six runs in less than four innings like he did against the Rays, or the Yankees will roll to a series-opening win.

Why should you put your money on the Astros?

As much trouble as Greinke has had historically in the postseason, he has not struggled against the Yankees this season. He had two starts against the Pinstripes in 2019, going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA. The Astros also have that intangible advantage of having won a clutch game just a few days ago, while the Yankees have been waiting for the other Division Series to come to an end. There is also the Houston tendency to get into opposing bullpens early — and the Yankee starters have not shown a great deal of durability. In the ALDS, the Yankees only got 13 ⅔ combined innings out of their three starters, as James Paxton went 4 ⅔ innings in the opener, Masahiro Tanaka went five in Game 2, and we already mentioned the four innings that Severino provided. That means that the bullpen pitched almost half of the innings so far. They have gotten rest since then, but over the course of a long series, this trend could push matters firmly in the Astros’ favor.

Final Score Prediction

The Yankees have the advantage of the extended rest — but the Astros have the advantage of the momentum of winning a tough Game 5. One could ask, of course, why the Astros faced a Game 5 in the first place, and a big part of that reason is Zack Greinke’s performance in Game 3. I see the Yankees getting to Greinke as well and holding on for an 8-6 win to start off the ALCS.