The Major League Baseball regular season is a marathon, with teams playing 162 regular-season games. Projecting win totals is an interesting sports betting prop because of the huge number of variables involved. Injuries to starting pitchers and key position players can erode a team’s prospects considerably, but there are also years when teams trap lightning in a bottle and overperform, like the San Francisco Giants did in 2021. The record for wins in a season is 116, set by the Chicago Cubs in 1906 (when the regular season only lasted 155 games) and tied by the Seattle Mariners in 2001. The Cleveland Spiders (NL) still hold the ignominious record for fewest wins in a regular season, with a record of 20-134 in 1899. Let’s take a look at the projections for each team along with some thoughts about the best MLB wagering choices.
MLB News: 2023 Win Total Projections
| Team Totals | |
|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 75.5 |
| Atlanta Braves | 95.5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 77.5 |
| Boston Red Sox | 77.5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 77.5 |
| Chicago White Sox | 83.5 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 65.5 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 87.5 |
| Colorado Rockies | 65.5 |
| Detroit Tigers | 69.5 |
| Houston Astros | 96.5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 68.5 |
| L.A. Angels | 81.5 |
| L.A. Dodgers | 96.5 |
| Miami Marlins | 75.5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 85.5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 83.5 |
| N.Y. Mets | 94.5 |
| N.Y. Yankees | 94.5 |
| Oakland A’s | 59.5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 89.5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 67.5 |
| San Diego Padres | 93.5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 80.5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 88.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 89.5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 88.5 |
| Texas Rangers | 82.5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 92.5 |
| Washington Nationals | 59.5 |
Which overs should I take?
The Chicago Cubs went 74-88 last year, finishing over their 2022 projected total of 73.5. Between then and now, the team added Dansby Swanson at shortstop, an elite defender who can drive in more than 100 runs. His arrival will move Nico Hoerner to second base, giving the Cubs one of the top middle-defense pairings in the sport. The pitching staff still has Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly and Justin Steele, and the staff logged the fifth-best team ERA after the break. Jameson Taillon joins the staff, and Kyle Hendricks should be back within a month or so. Rookie Hayden Wesneski started six games down the stretch and put up a 2.18 ERA with a 0.939 WHIP in 33 innings. Cubs over 77.5 wins.
The Minnesota Twins got Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle at the trade deadline, and Carlos Correa’s return gives the Twins two MVP candidates (along with Byron Buxton). The pitching staff had just the 19th best ERA (3.98) but the acquisition of Pablo Lopez should improve that number. Also, the Twins get to play Kansas City 13 times and Detroit 13 times. The White Sox have a lot of questions coming in, and the Guardians could be overvalued. Twins over 84.5 wins.
Which unders should I take?
The Kansas City Royals have an excellent chance of losing 100 or more games this year. Their starting rotation is filled with retreads, and the offensive will still lack power. Their bullpen had a 4.66 ERA, fourth-worst in MLB, and even though an elderly Aroldis Chapman has come to town, that number won’t improve much. Bobby Witt Jr could drive in 100+ runs, and Salvador Perez and M.J. Melendez could stack up home runs, but without pitching, the Royals won’t win games, and the rest of the batting order is not intimidating. Royals under 68.5 wins.
The Colorado Rockies could also lose 100 games easily this year. Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, and German Marquez are the top three starting pitchers, but all of them had poor seasons in 2022. The closer is Daniel Bard, and he is solid, but getting to him will be a problem, as the setup pitching is iffy at best. Kris Bryant should be able to deliver with the bat, but the rest of the lineup has holes. Rockies under 65.5 wins.
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