When the American League Championship Series headed to New York earlier this week, the Houston Astros had to be feeling pretty good. They led the New York Yankees two games to none, and they had looked fairly dominant in both of those wins. However, when the series shifted to The Bronx, those Yankee bats came alive, and the Baby Bombers won the three games up north by a combined score of 19-5, including a 5-0 whipping in Game Five that saw New York get to Houston ace Dallas Keuchel for the first time. Now the series returns to the Lone Star State, with Justin Verlander pitching for Houston, the ageless veteran taking the hill against 23-year-old Luis Severino. Can the Astros reverse this momentum, or will the Yankees climb out of yet another 2-0 hole? Check out our MLB odds preview on this prime-time tilt.
Houston is undefeated at home in this postseason (as are the Yankees). Playing at home does give them some hope, of course — in best of seven series since 1985 (the LCS and the World Series), teams that were behind 3-2 but then returned to play the last two games at home have won those last two games 13 of 27 times. Of the 17 times when that team had lost Game Five to take a 3-2 deficit, eight of those teams have come back. So while things might seem gloomy, those hot bats of Altuve and Carlos Correa could wake up at home, just as the Baby Bombers’ did back in New York.
NY Yankees at Houston MLB Odds & Pick for ALCS Game 6
When: Friday, October 20, 2017, 8:08pm ET Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston TV: FS1 Radio: ESPN Radio Live Stream: MLB.tv MLB Odds: Houston Astros -140 Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA) (NY) vs Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA) (HOU)“New York is no joke.” Astros admit Yankee Stadium crowd energy was overwhelming in the Bronx: https://t.co/TjhR5G1jp2 #ALCS pic.twitter.com/tw5ceqGUCj
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) October 19, 2017
Weather Forecast
- Mostly Cloudy: 25°C/77°F
- Humidity: 80%
- Precipitation: 21%
- Cloud Cover: 66%
- Wind: 10 mph E
- Stadium Type: Retractable
Why should you bet on the Yankees?
Luis Severino looked good through four innings for the Yankees in Game Two, throwing four innings and permitting just one run on two hits. However, he was lifted after four innings for precautionary reasons. He did throw a bullpen session on Wednesday and reported no issues, and he says that he is healthy, but that question mark has to be lingering in the back of manager Joe Girardi’s mind. Five of the Astros’ regulars, including Jose Altuve, have career averages of .167 or lower against the hard-throwing Severino. By winning Game Five, the Yankees have put themselves into a favorable historical position. Since the LCS went from five games to seven in 1985, 16 teams have broken a 2-2 tie to take a 3-2 lead. Thirteen of those teams have then advanced to the World Series. If the Yankees win tonight, they will be just the fifth team to win four in a row in a best of seven series after dropping the first two. Two of those teams are prior editions of the Yanees (1978 and 1986), while the 1981 Dodgers and the 1985 Cardinals accomplished that same feat.Why should you put your money on the Astros?
Justin Verlander was magnificent for Houston in GAme Two, throwing a complete game and holding the Yankees to five hits and a single run, fanning out 13 men. While Chase Headley (.500 lifetime average, 1 HR, 1 RBI) and Didi Gregorius (.333 lifetime average, 1 HR, 1 RBI) have had some success off Verlander in the past, seven of the Yankee regulars have never hit safely against him. Verlander seems dialed in with his return to the postseason, and if there is anyone on the Astros’ staff who is ready to turn this series momentum around, it would be him.
Houston is undefeated at home in this postseason (as are the Yankees). Playing at home does give them some hope, of course — in best of seven series since 1985 (the LCS and the World Series), teams that were behind 3-2 but then returned to play the last two games at home have won those last two games 13 of 27 times. Of the 17 times when that team had lost Game Five to take a 3-2 deficit, eight of those teams have come back. So while things might seem gloomy, those hot bats of Altuve and Carlos Correa could wake up at home, just as the Baby Bombers’ did back in New York.
Latest MLB Odds Trends
- Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
- Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 playoff road games.
- New York is 1-7 in Severinos last 8 Friday starts.
- Astros are 42-20 in their last 62 games following a loss.
- Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
- Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Houston
