The Atlanta Braves (11-7) meet the New York Yankees (10-6) in a baseball matchup of the division leaders in the National League and American League East. The Braves have already played 18 of the 60 games in the regular season and have staked a claim as one of the most consistent offensive teams in MLB right now. The Yankees are also bashing the ball and have moved to a 1 ½-game lead over Tampa Bay and a two-game lead over the surprising Baltimore Orioles.
Take a look at our thoughts on Tuesday night’s game as you plan your midweek MLB betting.
MLB Game: Atlanta Braves at N.Y. Yankees (August 11)
When: Tuesday, August 11, 2020, 7:05 pm ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY
TV: No National Broadcast
Radio: WCNN 680 AM Atlanta / WFAN 660 AM New York City
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: Atlanta +138 / New York -162 / O/U 10 | Check the Odds
Projected Pitching Matchup:
Touki Toussaint (0-0, 6.08 ERA) (ATL) vs Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 5.59 ERA) (NY)
Why should you Bet on Atlanta?
Touki Toussaint’s numbers don’t look good, but he’s still undoing a lot of the damage that came in his season debut, when the Rays shelled him for six earned runs on five hits over 2 ⅔ innings. Since then, he has pitched in two games the Braves have won. Against the Mets and the Blue Jays, he threw 10 ⅔ innings, permitting earned runs on seven hits, striking out 14 while walking just three. He lasted 6 ⅔ innings against the Blue Jays on August 6, so durability should not be an issue, so long as he can keep the ball down.
Marcell Ozuna is hitting the ball hard again this year — almost as hard as he hit it in 2017 for Miami, before a two-year dropoff. His chase rate is also down, which means he is walking more and his on-base percentage is up. Nick Markakis is back from the shelf, so Ozuna won’t have to play in the outfield, which (if you’ve been watching clips of him going after balls in the field) will definitely help the Braves.
Why should you Put your Money on the Yankees?
Jordan Montgomery picked up the win in his debut, throwing 5 ⅔ innings of five-hit, one-run ball on July 31 against Boston. However, his second start only lasted four innings, as the Phillies got all over him for five runs on six hits, as he struck out two and walked one. So he has demonstrated good control so far, but he’s finding too much of the plate with his pitches, and hitters are teeing off.
Aaron Judge is hitting big home runs, but his walk rate is down — from 16.5% over the 2017-2019 seasons to just 3.1%, according to ESPN.com. His swing rate has gone from 41.1% to 46.8%, which is part of it, and his strikeout rate is still 30%. So he’s a little too aggressive on pitches in the zone, and pitchers are starting to take advantage. But if he can manage that swing rate a bit, he should be just as dangerous as he was last year. Giancarlo Stanton has gone in the injured list with a hamstring concern, so the pressure goes up on the rest of the New York bats.
Final Score and Prediction
Toussaint is trending up as a pitcher, while Montgomery seems to be trending down. Atlanta shows no fear playing in the biggest stadiums and under the most pressure, and the aura of Yankee Stadium is significantly less with no fans in the stands. I see the Braves taking Tuesday nights game, 5-3. Did you see that the over/under is 10 runs? It looks like the prognosticators are expecting all kinds of fireworks, so I would jump on the “under” before it slides down.
Braves vs Yankees | Check the Odds
