The last week has not been kind to the re-election chances of Donald J. Trump, currently the 45th President of the United States. The election takes place on November 3, and voters are already heading to the polls for early voting, and mail-in ballots are already heading in for tabulation. Over the last week, though, two events have taken place that have made things harder for Trump. First, the New York Times released a bombshell set of articles detailing specifics from Trump’s tax records, which Trump has fought to keep secret since before the 2016 election. Second, Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden had their first debate of the campaign season on Tuesday night, and many observers who were not already Trump partisans concluded that they would support Biden in the election, according to polling right after the debate.
If you’re considering including this election in your online Elections betting, take a look at our thoughts on each of these two events.
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Joe Biden -161
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Why are the income tax details such a big deal?
For the last five years, Trump has said that he has been unable to release his tax returns because he is under audit by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. He has claimed that he has paid millions of dollars in taxes but has concealed his returns behind that audit, despite the fact that there is no law indicating that returns under audit have to remain confidential.
Some of the most damaging details to come out, such as Trump paying exactly $750 in income taxes for the tax years 2016 and 2017, run counter to Trump’s promises to care about the average American who, thanks to withholding and other automatic mechanisms, has likely paid far more in taxes while making far less. He also deducted $70,000 for hair styling, and over $750,000 in “consulting fees,” money that he seems to have just given to his daughter and then deducted as a business expense.
American voters learned about this audit, as well. Apparently, he claimed a $72.9 million tax refund about a decade ago, and the IRS has challenged that refund. With interest and fees, if the IRS ends up ruling against him, he could end up owing the United States Treasury $100 million or more.
Basically, Trump has either been lying about his taxes, or his businesses have lost so much money that he appears to have very little acumen at running those businesses. The third choice, that he is “smart enough” to avoid paying taxes, will not ring well with the average voter, who has to pay more each year.
The debate seemed like a lot of yelling. Why did it hit Trump’s odds so hard?
If you look more closely at the debate video, there were a few moments that resonated, such as when moderator Chris Wallace gave Trump the opportunity to tell such white supremacist groups as the Proud Boys to stop their agitation, but instead he told them to “Stand back and stand by,” which (according to the Proud Boys’ social media page) is a slogan that they have added to their logo and taken as a charge to be ready to take action. Biden, in contrast, told the group to “Cease and desist.”
Much of the debate involved Trump interrupting Biden during Biden’s assigned time to make points. Constantly cutting in, dropping insults and trying to distract Biden looked like it was Trump’s primary strategy for the night, which has led to the Commission on Presidential Debates making a statement that it would implement additional structure for the later two debates. A poll of undecided voters after the debate said that the evening’s events had led 32 percent to be more likely to vote for Biden, 11 percent for Trump — and 57 percent for neither, showing the pessimism that the debate produced in many. But the differential between new voters for Trump and Biden helped to push the odds in Biden’s direction, with just over a month until the election.
