We have two #4 seeds meeting in two weeks at SoFi Stadium for Super Bowl LVI, as the Los Angeles Rams will become the second team to host a Super Bowl – and the second team to do it in the last two years, thanks to their fourth-quarter heroics against the San Francisco 49ers. They will welcome the Cincinnati Bengals, who erased a 21-3 deficit to take a 24-21 lead in the fourth quarter, only to see Kansas City tie the game and send it to overtime. The Bengals did what Buffalo could not do last week – get a stop on the Chiefs in overtime, thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ second interception of the game, and then they ran the ball right down the Chiefs’ throats, moving into easy field goal range. Can these Bengals finish the job and win the franchise’s first Super Bowl?
Read on to learn their updated NFL betting odds and some of our thoughts on the team.
NFL News: Odds of Cincinnati Winning Super Bowl LVI
The odds opened at Los Angeles -3.5 but has quickly moved as high as Los Angeles -4.5 at DraftKings at this writing. At some books it remains at 3 ½ points, though, and at others it has moved to 4 points, which means there is some variance that you can take advantage of if you want to do some hedging. The point total has held at 49 ½ so far, but once the public action starts to weigh in, many experts expect that total to creep higher, which means the “under” becomes an interesting play. The number 51 is a key number for point total wagering, and if the total can hit 51 or even 51 ½, then the “under” becomes much safer.
So why are the Bengals worth your money? We had them covering the spread and winning straight up against Las Vegas and Tennessee, although we did have them covering the spread but losing straight up against Kansas City. Now, head coach Zac Taylor has answered a lot of the questions that his fan base had for him. Would he be able to develop a franchise quarterback, for example? Well, after just two seasons (one of which was lost to a knee injury), Joe Burrow has the Bengals in the Super Bowl.
Burrow leads the NFL in yards per passing attempt for the regular season (8.9). A lot of times, quarterbacks stack up lots of yards in games because their teams are trailing. In the case of the Bengals, Burrow had a solid running game keyed by Joe Burrow and Samaji Perine, so he only had to throw the ball about 33 times per game (20th overall). So while he was efficient in yards per attempt, he was not having to lead a barnburner of a rally week in and week out. Burrow ranked tenth overall in intended air yards, which means that his passes were heading down the field instead of going toward checkdowns. This helped Cincinnati rank second overall in plays going at least 25 yards, behind only Seattle.
One reason for Burrow’s great numbers is rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who won the national championship at LSU with Burrow. He had five games in the regular season with at least 100 receiving yards and two with at least 200. In the playoffs, he broke the 100-yard barrier in the wild card and divisional rounds, so overall he had seven 100-yards games. The Bengals won six of those, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Green Bay. He ranked third in the NFL in yards after the catch, with 645. When the Chiefs tried to blanket Chase, Burrow turned to Clemson product Tee Higgins, who had a huge game in the AFC Championship.
Adjustments are another key for Cincinnati. In the divisional playoff, Burrow got sacked nine times but was able to adjust to the pressure down the stretch and deliver the win (it helped that Ryan Tannehill threw that late interception, but turnovers are always key plays). In the AFC Championship, Kansas City swarmed Burrow the first four possessions, but it was the 41-yard screen pass touchdown to Samaji Perine that got the Chiefs to back off the intense pressure, giving Burrow more time to find targets down the field. The Bengals’ defense found its rhythm against Mahomes, and the comeback was on.
This is a team that can also defeat the Rams, because Burrow won’t make the same mistakes that Jimmy G did, and the Bengals’ rushing offense, an underrated unit, will be able to do damage similar to what the 49ers accomplished in the second and third quarters against the Rams. Overall, Cincinnati bettors should be able to take advantage of significant value in this game.
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