Fight Night 213: Betting Predictions & Analysis

UFC Fight Night 213: Betting Predictions & Analysis

Written by on October 28, 2022

Saturday night’s installment of UFC will be Fight Night 213 from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The headliner will be a featherweight tilt featuring Calvin Kattar and Arnold Allen. Max Griffin and Tim Means will square off in a welterweight bout for the co-main event. You can catch the whole night’s action on ESPN+. Check out the complete fight card, and don’t miss our predictions for the two fights on top of the card as you plot out your sports betting.

 

UFC Fight Night 213: Kattar vs Allen Preview

 

Main Card (ESPN+)

  • Calvin Kattar vs Arnold Allen (Featherweight)
  • Max Griffin vs Tim Means (Welterweight)
  • Jared Vanderaa vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight)
  • Josh Fremd vs Tresean Gore (Middleweight)
  • Dustin Jacoby vs Khalil Rountree Jr (Light Heavyweight)
  •  

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

  • Phil Hawes vs Roman Dolidze (Middleweight)
  • Andrei Arlovski vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima (Heavyweight)
  • Park Jun-yong vs Joseph Holmes (Middleweight)
  • Chase Hooper vs Steve Garcia (Featherweight)
  • Carlos Mota vs Cody Durden (Flyweight)
  • Christian Rodriguez vs Joshua Weems (Bantamweight)
 

Calvin Kattar (23-6, 7-4 UFC, +100) vs Arnold Allen (18-1, 9-0 UFC, -120) is Allen’s first main event in the promotion. He has patiently worked his way up the ladder, starting with an upset of Alan Omer in his debut at the age of 21; a guillotine choke in the third round was Allen’s statement. He didn’t get much exposure for a while, though, fighting just about once a year and always in Europe, but that changed at UFC 239, when he beat Gilbert Melendez in his U.S. debut. It was not until his 2021 win over Sodiq Yusuff that readied him for contender status, thanks to his solid striking technique. However, he was still seen as too patient for a dynamic fight. In March, though, all of that changed, when he brought all sorts of aggression to his fight with Dan Hooker in London. It only took 2 ½ minutes for Allen to get the stoppage, using several avalanches of offense to land strikes in bunches. If this change is permanent, he could be ready to enter permanent contender status.

Allen’s next test is Kattar, who seems to be the gatekeeper in front of the top of the division. He came into UFC in 2017 and quickly beat Andre Fili on the cards and knocked out Shane Burgos to make his mark in the division. He had problems with the diverse striking of Renato Carneiro and Zabit Magomedsharipov, but he bounced back in 2020, beating Jeremy Stephens and then taking down Dan Ige in the first of four consecutive main events. Things took a tumble in 2021, when Max Holloway just overwhelmed Kattar with offense for 25 minutes, a beating that took Kattar a year to come back from. He did beat Giga Chikadze clearly on the cards, using some of his rarely used wrestling skills to win. He lost his last fight against Josh Emmett on a controversial split decision. If Allen starts out heavy on the offense again, he could run out of gas given the five-round format, and there have been times when he has let up on the gas, allowing his opponent to get back into it. I like Allen’s resolve, and I’m going to take him here.

Final Prediction: Allen wins via decision

 

Max Griffin (18-9, 6-7 UFC, -180) vs Tim Means (32-13-1, 14-10 UFC, +155) is a showdown between two welterweight stalwarts who have been around for a long time. Griffin was already on the older side of the profession when he entered UFC in 2016, but he was more of an all-around athlete than a technically skilled fighter, and so he took some punishment in the early going. He did beat Mike Perry in 2018, but there were also times when he had to win to save his spot in UFC. He did improve over time, but he didn’t really reap the rewards until a 2020 victory over Ramiz Brahimaj, the first of several fights where he showed a new level of power and aggressiveness. He got a stoppage win against Brahimaj and again over Kenan Song, and then he got the biggest victory of his career in 2021 when he beat Carlos Condit. Adding power and pace to his game has made a significant difference despite a split decision loss to Neil Magny, so this is his latest chance to bounce back.

Means has come through UFC twice. His first sortie in the promotion was not that impressive, but since he came back in 2014, he has been impressive. He has a name as a brawler, but he has more technical skill than you might guess. He likes to get his opponents in the clinch and then delivering an avalanche of elbows. A pair of knockout losses to Niko Price and Daniel Rodriguez seemed to foreshadow the end of his career, but then he won three in a row before losing to Kevin Holland in June. He can use his wrestling skills and his clinch skills to do damage, but he has never really thought about defense, so Griffin should be able to bring pain.

Final Prediction: Griffin wins via decision

 

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