2023 NFL Win Totals Betting Analysis: NFC South

2023 NFL Win Totals Betting Analysis: NFC South

It wasn’t that long ago that the NFC South was the home of NFL legends. Drew Brees spent almost his entire NFL career quarterbacking the New Orleans Saints, leading them to a Super Bowl title, a number of division titles as well as some deep postseason runs. Tom Brady finished his storied NFL career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leading the perennial also-ran to a Super Bowl title. Matt Ryan guided the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl before his name was forever inked to the epic collapse the Falcons suffered, turning a 28-3 third-quarter lead over the New England Patriots turned into an overtime loss. All four teams are going through their own forms of rebuilding, which makes the division wide open – and makes the win totals for each team hard to set too high. Before you lock in your NFL betting on point totals in the NFC South, check out our thoughts on the teams.

 

NFL Betting News: NFC South Win Totals Betting

 
Team Win Total
New Orleans Saints 9.5
Atlanta Falcons 8.5
Carolina Panthers 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5
 
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The Saints are the favorites to win the division after getting quarterback Derek Carr from the Las Vegas Raiders. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are still part of the offense, but Kamara’s age and Thomas’ injuries make it questionable that they will still play at an elite level. The team also has Chris Olave, the 13th best wide receiver in Pro Football Focus’ NFL rankings last season. In 2022, the Saints’ defense came in fifth for yards permitted and ninth for yards permitted. Carr should be an upgrade over Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton, which means the defense won’t have to carry as much of the load.

The Falcons upgraded their running game in the draft, adding Bijan Robinson to a roster that already had Tyler Allgeier, who set a franchise record for a rookie when he ran for 1,035 yards in 2022. Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder started four games as a rookie but only threw a touchdown pass in one of those games. The team won two of those, though. The defense brought in Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree, Jessie Bates, and Jeff Okudah, which will upgrade the unit from the group that was 31st in sacks, 26th in yards permitted and takeaways, and 21st in points permitted.

The Panthers will start Bryce Young at quarterback; the rookie will have Adam Thielen and DJ Chark running routes, along with Pro Bowl tailback Miles Sanders and tight end Hayden Hurst. The O-line gave up the 11th-fewest sacks last year, and head coach Frank Reich helped deliver a Super Bowl title to Philadelphia in 2017 as the Eagles’ OC. The defense is already solid, so if the offense can approach its ceiling, this could be an interesting team.

The Buccaneers still have a tough defense that should be better than its average numbers in 2022. The offense will belong to Baker Mayfield, but he will be running for his life as last year’s O-line lost Alex Cappa, Ali Marpet, and Donovan Smith. Brady was only able to get the 25th-best point total last year, and the O-line was better last year. The tailback position is wide open as the team no longer has Leonard Fournette. Some people are picking the Bucs to get the top overall draft pick in 2024, but I don’t see them being quite that awful.

 
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