In Week 16, I thought that the Buffalo Bills might be able to reverse the whip on New England beat the Patriots at Foxboro. I also thought that Cincinnati would be able to complete the sweep of Baltimore (although I did not foresee Joe Burrow throwing for 525 yards in that game – giving him almost 1,000 passing yards in the two Bengal wins over the Ravens this season). I also did not foresee Dallas tying a franchise record with 42 points in the first half, or scoring more points (56) in any game since 1980. Another surprise involved Houston putting up 41 points on the Chargers en route to a big win.
We will try and predict the chaos known as the NFL once again this week – and here are our sure NFL betting losers for Week 17.
NFL News: Sure Losers for Week 17
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 2 | 4:25 pm ET, FOX
Over the last three weeks, Arizona is 0-3 against the spread and straight up, despite entering each game as the favorite. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has posted a 4-10 record against the spread when the Cardinals are favored at home. However, this is a road game, and the Cardinals are 7-1 anywhere but the desert. That road loss was a 30-12 shellacking in Detroit, of all places, but let’s consider this bet for a minute. Dallas just put up 56 points on Washington, so they will come in overrated (which means you might want to wait and see if this line will expand a bit).
If we go back to Kingsbury’s record, he is 12-3-2 against the spread with the Cardinals as a road underdog. No coach has performed better for sports bettors over the last three seasons in this situation. Even though the Cardinals have been sliding off the table the last few weeks, they still rank #7 in the league in expected points per play (0.084), while Dallas is #10 (0.058). Of those 56 points last week, “only” 42 came from the offense, as Dallas also had a pick-six and a touchdown off a punt block. Also, remember that, for much of this season, if Dallas does not get a turnover on defense, they struggle to get stops. They have also struggled to finish drives with touchdowns. That wasn’t the case against Washington, but the Cardinals should be much better.
Cowboys to lose (ATS) : Bet the Game Today
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 2 | 8:20 pm ET, NBC
When the Green Bay Packers visited the Minnesota Vikings earlier this season, the Vikings held on for a 34-31 win, just another unlikely twist in Minnesota’s whirling dervish of a season. Now that the teams prepare to meet at Lambeau Field, you might wonder if the Packers can cover this line after holding on to beat the Cleveland Browns by just two last week – also at home. In that game, Baker Mayfield threw four interceptions, the last coming on what could have been the game-winning drive.
The Packers have a bit more motivation this week. If they win (and if Arizona wins), the Packers would clinch the top seed in the NFC, and that all-important bye in the first week of the playoffs. Beating the Vikings would just about drive a stake through Minnesota’s postseason chances. In his career, Aaron Rodgers has posted a 68-37-4 record against the spread at home. Against other NFC North foes, he has gone 49-28 against the spread; in home games in the division, he is 25-12 against the spread. The Packers’ defense has buckled on several occasions this season, especially once the game has moved into the fourth quarter. However, the extra motivation of playing a division rival should help the Packers find that additional edge to win by a touchdown – or more.
Minnesota to lose (ATS) : Bet the Game Today
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