After the Kansas City Chiefs edged the Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship and earn a date with the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, the opening lines had the Chiefs favored by a point and a half. Several factors may have played a role: the greater experience that the Chiefs have in recent Super Bowls, the fact that Patrick Mahomes is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and a sense that the Chiefs have the more dynamic offense. That line shifted, though, and it has now settled at Philadelphia favored by a point or a point and a half, depending on the book that you choose. So the question is worth asking – is it wiser to do your Super Bowl betting on an event like the Super Bowl early or late? Read on to get our perspective.
NFL Betting: Should You Wager Early or Late on the Super Bowl?
Early bettors take advantage of imbalances
Between 2007 and 2020, according to Pro Football Focus, the closing spread predicted the right winner 65.9% of the time. Opening spreads only predicted the right winner 63.5% of the time. Between opening and closing, the betting public weighs in, and the action moves the lines toward a point of balance. The theory behind this is that the movement driven by the betting action increases the accuracy of the line, making it tougher to beat.
Will the lines move even further?
Right now, we are still six days away from the Super Bowl, and the lines opened eight days ago. Both teams get a week to relax and recuperate from injuries, which means that we shouldn’t have any major additions to injury lists as far as players missing the game. However, between now and the Super Bowl is when a lot more action will come in. A lot of this will come from casual bettors looking to wager as more of a hobby than a researched attempt to make money, and the volume could push the line more toward the Eagles or swing it back toward the Chiefs.
Bet Super Bowl LVII Today
Xbet Betting Lines
Why do lines start out with imbalances?
Even the professionals who set the opening point spreads are susceptible to biases that may not square with the reality of the game. Many people have spent the season underestimating the Philadephia Eagles this season, but the team has only lost one game with Jalen Hurts at quarterback. The other two losses came when Hurts was out with a shoulder injury in Weeks 16 and 17. There are questions about Hurts’ shoulder, as he has not thrown the ball down the field with the frequency or accuracy that he showed before his injury, but he has not had to. The Eagles have played the Giants twice and the 49ers in the playoffs, and while the Week 18 game with the Giants was close, the playoff seedings were already set and the Giants were playing a backup quarterback. The two playoff wins came by a combined 69-14, which means that the Eagles didn’t need to push the ball down the field in the passing game. There is some buzz that the Eagles have had a much easier road to the Super Bowl, and while that may be true, it is also true that the Eagles have demolished both opponents instead of playing down to their level.
Also, while Hurts may also come in at less than 100%, the same could be true of Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a high ankle sprain in the divisional playoff win over Jacksonville. He only missed one series (which turned into a 98-yard touchdown drive led by backup Chad Henne), but when he returned, it was clear that his mobility was limited, and the Jaguars were able to load the box on the running game. He had more mobility against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship, but his ability to throw on the run and scramble with speed was still compromised. In the early hours of the point spread, the hype surrounding the comeback Mahomes had led may have pushed the line in the Chiefs’ favor, and the realization that the Chiefs had a tougher time than they perhaps should have against the Bengals will mean that the Eagles should be favored.
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
