Four teams remain alive in the battle for the AFC Championship: the Tennessee Titans, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. All four division winners survive, with the Titans advancing via the top seed and the other three teams all winning their wild card round matchups at home last week. Let’s take an updated look at the NFL betting odds for each of these teams to win the AFC Championship and advance to Super Bowl LVI, as well as some thoughts about each contender.
NFL News: Betting Projections for AFC Conference Champions
Odds to Win the AFC Championship
| Kansas City Chiefs | +165 |
| Buffalo Bills | +225 |
| Tennessee Titans | +325 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +550 |
Why the disrespect for Tennessee? According to ESPN and Football Outsiders, they are the “worst #1 seed since 1983” on the basis of a number of metrics, even though they won the AFC South and posted a 12-5 record. Losses to the Jets and the Texans did not help their cause, but they also beat both Buffalo and Kansas City this season.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill does not fit the profile of the signal-caller for an elite offense. He was 16th in the NFL in passing yards and 24th in average yards per completion. However, the Titans are built a bit differently than the other teams remaining in the AFC bracket. They are a run-first team, and the return of Derrick Henry could help them re-establish that identity. They used that identity to smash Buffalo and Kansas City, but when the offense wasn’t working, they struggled against some of the league’s weakest teams. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones also healthy, though, the Titans should be able to move the ball against the other teams left in the AFC bracket. The Titans’ defense is also impressive, ranking sixth in fewest points permitted. They are particularly strong against the run, while they struggle a bit against the pass.
The Titans host Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bengals should have won by more than seven points, as they had four trips deep into the red zone that ended in field goals. However, the Bengals didn’t look like they had the hammer down all the way, especially after halftime, against an overmatched RAiders squad. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase had some solid hookups during the game – and I don’t expect Tee Higgins to have as many drops in the next game. The Bengals have a strong running defense, which will counter the Titans’ strength. These reasons are why I’m picking the Bengals to beat Tennessee.
The Buffalo Bills are my smart pick to win the AFC right now. Their offense is peaking right now after a seven-touchdown performance against New England, as tailback Devin Singletary is reemerging as a balancing weapon to go along with Josh Allen’s passing and running. The defense is also peaking, shutting down opponents in the running game and providing enough of a pass rush to give their secondary the opportunity to blanket receivers. I have them picked to beat…
The Kansas City Chiefs are the favorite here, and I get that. They have the most explosive quarterback and the most proven pair of receiving options, in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Their consistency is a concern, as is their passing defense. They can pressure opposing quarterbacks and force poor decisions, but there aren’t any quarterbacks left on the AFC side of the bracket that have shown they are easy to push into turnovers. So for now, I’m going with the extra value that the Bills offer…because they simply look better right now.
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