One difference between the New Orleans Saints and most of the rest of the 32 franchises in the NFL has been their stability. From 2006 until 2020, the Saints had the same general manager, head coach and starting quarterback. However, the retirement of longtime quarterback Drew Brees in March meant that the team would go through a period of transition. The team also lost other staff, with the tight ends coach, the quarterbacks coach and secondary coach all now working elsewhere. The arrival of Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, combined with all of these changes, have changed the power structure of the NFC South considerably.
Let’s look at some of the NFL betting implications of all of these changes.
NFL News: New Orleans Saints Season Betting Analysis
Odds to Win the NFC South: +325
Odds to Win the NFC Championship: +1800
Odds to Win Super Bowl LVI: +4000
Can the Saints contend in the NFC South?
In addition to all of the roster changes, the Saints also had to clear about $100 million in salary from their payroll to get under the cap, thanks to the drop in the cap resulting from the impact that COVID-19 had on league revenues. The NFC South is now Tampa Bay’s to win or lose, as the defending Super Bowl champions have all 22 starters returning. The Saints have a quarterback duel between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, and that duel remains up in the air with one preseason game remaining.
Winston has the higher ceiling of the two quarterbacks. He has the stronger arm, and he can also throw more accurately while on the run. However, he also has a tendency to make questionable decisions, which leads to turnovers. Hill is more reliable but seems to do more damage as an X factor in plays, rather than the focus of the offense. Tailbacks Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray both return, giving the Saints’ offense balance. With wide receiver Michael Thomas out until at least October, the running game may be the emphasis of the Saints’ attack. Changing this part of the New Orleans identity will determine the success the Saints have in the division.
Where do the Saints sit in the NFC?
The NFC does not really have a dominant team. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl last year — but did not win their division during the regular season. The Green Bay Packers have the reigning MVP, but they don’t have a great offense arrayed around him, and their defense is questionable. The NFC East is still a collection of rebuilds, and the NFC West — while the most competitive division in the conference — has four teams that each have at least one major flaw to address. So if Winston or Hill can catch fire running the Saints’ offense, and if the Buccaneers don’t have the same hunger they had in 2020, then this could be a dark horse contender.
Do the Saints really have a shot to get to the Super Bowl?
Getting out of the NFC bracket likely means taking down Green Bay and either the Rams, the Seahawks or the Cardinals — and Tampa Bay. I’m not sure if either Winston or Hill can lead the Saints through all three of those potential matchups. I like New Orleans because of the consistency of their franchise and the solid players they have at a lot of the skill positions, but until a settled quarterback is in place and the offense is consistent, getting to the Super Bowl seems a bit out of their league.
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