If you follow the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, you know that it’s a quarterback-heavy position. After all, no player is involved with the quarter-by-quarter performance of a team, and no player has more impact on a team’s long-term success. There are exceptions, of course; occasionally, a running back with a transcendent season will win the trophy, as Adrian Peterson did in 2012 and LaDainian Tomlinson did in 2006. A defensive player has won it twice (Alan Page, in 1971, and Lawrence Taylor, in 1986), and a kicker even won it one time (Mark Moseley, in the strike-shortened 1982 season). Looking at the sports betting odds list for this year, though, shows that the quarterback position is the one you should focus on. Let’s look at the NFL odds as well as some thoughts about smart wagering choices.
NFL Betting News: 2023 Odds Analysis and Betting Preview for Most Valuable Player
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen | +700 |
| Justin Herbert | +900 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1200 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1500 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott | +1600 |
| Justin Fields | +2000 |
| Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff | +2500 |
| Geno Smith | +3000 |
| Derek Carr, Jordan Love | +3500 |
| Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett | +4000 |
| Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance | +5000 |
| Matthew Stafford, Mac Jones | +6000 |
| Daniel Jones | +7500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Jefferson, Sam Howell, Kyler Murray | +10000 |
| Cooper Kupp | +15000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +20000 |
Bet on the NFL Most Valuable Player
In 2022, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes dueled back and forth for the MVP trophy, and it was Mahomes who ended up with the hardware. Fair or not, the fact that Hurts had to miss a few starts down the stretch likely hurt his candidacy, while Mahomes made it all the way through the regular season. It is the 17-game season that serves as the basis of MVP voting, which takes place before the postseason.
Mahomes certainly had the numbers, as he set a career mark by completing 67.1 percent of his passes. He threw for 5,250 yards and posted a 41:12 TD:INT ratio. He also reached a new season mark with four rushing touchdowns, and the Chiefs went 14-3 with him at the helm.
Hurts took some major strides between 2021 and 2022, setting a career mark of his own by completing 66.5 percent of his passes, throwing for 3.701 yards and 22 touchdowns with six interceptions. He ran for 760 yards and 13 scores. Hurts is a bit further down the odds list for MVP, perhaps because of his lower passing output.
Joe Burrow is a co-favorite to win the MVP as he has led the Bengals to the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship in just his second and third seasons in the NFL. Burrow has a better offensive line in front of him in 2023, at least on paper, so his production should be even more consistent than it was in 2022, especially with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins returning to run routes for him.
Lamar Jackson already has one MVP trophy on the mantelpiece, and he signed a huge extension in the off-season. He also has the motivation to come back after injuries sabotaged his 2022 campaign, which ended with consecutive losses to the Bengals in Cincinnati, in week 18 and in the wild-card playoff game. With Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. in the wide receiver room, he has the best group of targets that he has had in a long time.
What about Justin Herbert? The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator coming to town in Kellen Moore, who found ways to get the Dallas offense cooking under Dak Prescott. Herbert completed 68.2 percent of his passes, threw for 4,739 yards and posted a 25:10 TD:INT ratio. While the completion percentage showed an improvement, his touchdown passes dropped significantly, as he had thrown 38 in 2021. For Herbert to enter the MVP conversation, he needs to finish a win against Kansas City, not just have his team in position to possibly win late in the game.
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