When the line for this Week Two matchup between AFC contenders dropped, the Chiefs were 2 ½-point favorites. As action poured in, the line grew to its current size — and some books have it as much as four points. The Chiefs had a flat first half against Cleveland in their opener, going into the locker room at halftime down by a dozen. However, they put up a furious rally after the intermission, coming back to win, 33-29. Cleveland could not stop Tyreek Hill, who had 11 catches for 197 yards and a score. Given that Baltimore gave up 409 passing yards to Las Vegas, the Chiefs should be able to move the ball. The Ravens either held the lead or were tied the entire game against the Raiders in prime time, but then Lamar Jackson fumbled in his own end, and what had been a 14-point Baltimore lead turned into a three-point loss in overtime. The Ravens did run for 189 yards, tops in the NFL, in their opener, but took a tough loss. Jackson threw for 217 yards and a score and led all runners with 86 ground yards.
Can the Ravens pull off the upset, or will the Chiefs make it a 2-0 start yet again? We have your NFL betting preview right here.
NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, September 19)
When: Sunday, September 19, 2021, 8:20 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV: NBC
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Kansas City -3.5 / O/U 56
Why should you bet on the Chiefs?
Patrick Mahomes is the closest thing the NFL has to Harry Houdini right now. He has the arm and the mobility to bring his team back in just about any situation, so long as he has some semblance of protection. We saw what happens when his O-line craters in Super Bowl LV, but even against a strong Cleveland defense in the opener, he was able to bring the team down the field time and time again in the fourth quarter to key the comeback victory. Against AFC North teams, Mahomes has been particularly devastating; in eight games, he has a perfect 8-0 record, along with a 126.5 quarterback rating, a 72.4% completion rate and a 26:3 TD:INT ratio.
Raiders tight end Darren Waller went nuts against Baltimore, catching 10 balls (on 19 targets) for 105 yards and a score. Of the other nine throws Derek Carr sent his way, he was open, but the throws were off — otherwise, he would have had an even bigger night. The Chiefs have one of the best tight ends in the game in Travis Kelce, and you can be sure that he has plans for a huge night of his own. Over the last three seasons, when Kelce has taken on the Ravens, he has at least six receptions and at least 70 receiving yards each game.
Why should you put your money on the Ravens?
Lamar Jackson led the Ravens in rushing — and he may need to do that a lot this season, with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both done for the year with injuries. It worked for most of the game against Las Vegas, but Jackson fumbled the ball twice, and the Raiders cashed in each time. He’s going to have to protect the ball more like an old-school fullback if he is going to carry the ball as many times as he did against Las Vegas without turning the ball over. In three games against Kansas City, though, Jackson has just a 78.9 quarterback rating, a 52.3% completion rate and just a single rushing touchdown.
The Ravens love to blitz; last year, they blitzed on 44.1% of defensive snaps, yielding the fourth highest pressure rate (26.8%) and an 87.2 quarterback rating permitted, seventh lowest in the league. However, that strategy does not work against Kansas City. Mahomes averaged 9.3 yards per passing attempt against the blitz, completed 70.4% of his passes and posted a 16:1 TD:INT ratio in 2020 against the blitz.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Given the defensive problems that Baltimore showed against Las Vegas, they could get absolutely torched by the Chiefs. Kansas City needs to avoid another flat start, though, as the Ravens have a way of taking over the rhythm of a game if they can take the lead. I predict a final score of Chiefs 34, Ravens 30.
NFL Betting Odds
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