Chargers vs Patriots AFC Divisional Round Odds & Pick

If you don’t think the New England Patriots will rouse themselves to prepare mentally for the arrival of the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional round of the playoffs, you might be underestimating them. Pats wideout Julian Edelman released a “Beat L.A.” hype video yesterday. It’s been over a decade since these two iconic quarterbacks met in the playoffs. Tom Brady is looking to advance to his ninth Super Bowl, while Philip Rivers is still waiting for his first chance — and this might be the last great chance Rivers has to get there. The Patriots aren’t looking like their usual selves: Tom Brady had two chances to lead game-winning drives over Pittsburgh in Week 15, but both drives petered out. The Patriots lost to Miami on a hook-and-ladder play that wouldn’t have worked against many college defenses. Jacksonville and Detroit, of all teams, both beat the Patriots by double figures this season. Can the Chargers knock the Patriots out of the playoffs on their own home field? Check out our NFL betting preview of this exciting AFC matchup.

Chargers vs Patriots AFC Divisional Round Odds & Pick

“Is it special to … get another shot at them? Heck yeah, it is.” They meet again: https://t.co/wZWFROtOZW #LACvsNE #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/n9S4CrwHSH

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2019

When: Sunday, January 13, 2019, 1:05pm ET Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA TV: CBS Radio: Westwood One Live Stream: NFL Live AFC Divisional Round Odds: New England -4.5 O/U 47

Why should you bet on the Chargers?

The Patriots still have Tom Brady leading their offense. However, the weapons around him (Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, James White, Chris Hogan) aren’t as scary as the ones he has had in years past; the suspension of Josh Gordon put a torpedo hole in the deep-play capacity of these Patriots. On defense, the Patriots rank 23nd when it comes to preventing big plays and 22nd in both marginal efficiency and third down success rate, according to SBNation. The Chargers got elite play from Rivers this year, thanks in part to a terrific offensive line and a quick group of receivers led by Keenan Allen. Tailback Melvin Gordon gives a great deal of balance to this offense as well. The Chargers have covered in five of seven overall and in seven of their last nine games in the postseason (although their postseason history is somewhat in the distant past). In their last five games as an underdog, though, the Chargers have won straight up, and they have won eight straight away from StubHub Center. If you like L.A. here, you think that they can exploit the Patriots’ defensive weaknesses and use their own pass rush to hold the Patriots down.

Why should you put your money on the Patriots?

The last time New England lost on their home field came on October 1, 2017. The last time they lost a playoff game at home was the AFC Championship in 2013. The Patriots may have dropped some games against iffy opponents (Tennessee? Jacksonville? Miami? Detroit?), but they also went 4-0 against teams who made the playoffs (Kansas City, Indianapolis, Houston and Chicago). So while the Patriots sometimes play down to the level of their counterparts, they can also bring their game up when the occasion calls for it. The Patriots have covered in five of their last seven playoff games at Gillette Stadium and in 38 of their last 56 home games overall. They have covered in four straight games against the Chargers — and at home, they have won their last three games by a combined 61 points. If you like New England, you see the turnover demon that lurks within Philip Rivers (and it’s still there, as he threw six picks in the last three games of the regular season) rearing its ugly head at the worst possible time.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I like what the Chargers have done this season, particularly down the stretch. With that said, I see the Chargers falling into the same sort of trap that has caught other Patriot opponents — taking a lead into the fourth quarter, only to see things fall apart on that last drive. I like the Chargers to cover but the Patriots to win, 30-27.