Best Ways to Safely Handicap the 2018 NFL Preseason

There are some sports betting enthusiasts who take a dim view of wagering on the 2018 NFL preseason. After all, most of the head coaches out there simply don’t care what the final score is, because they’re too busy deciding who to keep and who to cut as they have to winnow their rosters almost every week. However, there are some ways to make some money betting on the NFL in August, so take a look at some of our tips about how to get the most out of your wagering dollar.

Best Ways to Safely Handicap the 2018 NFL Preseason

Our preseason power rankings are out! @HarrisonNFL sees a changing of the guard atop the AFC https://t.co/lFBueDL9GN pic.twitter.com/H3Ity8jdRR

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) August 7, 2018

Remember — this isn’t the regular season

A lot of people who don’t like to bet the NFL preseason point out that there is no matching teams’ performance from the regular season to what happens in August. This makes a lot of sense — many teams don’t play their starting quarterback or running back in more than a handful of series. Even the “dress rehearsal” — usually Week 3 of the preseason — only features starters for two or three quarters at the most. In 2017, Cleveland went 4-0 in the preseason — and then lost all 16 regular season games. New England went 1-3 in the preseason — and then made it all the way to Super Bowl LII.

Don’t expect much in the way of a point spread

You generally won’t see a spread of more than two or three points, and those generally favor the home team. So if you see Jacksonville +3 at Dallas, for example, the books are basically calling these games toss-ups. Also, you won’t see much drifting in the spreads, because the action isn’t nearly as big in preseason games, and it’s also generally not as lopsided as regular-season action can be.

Pay attention to coaches’ comments about playing time

Each coach has his own ideas about how much time starters need in preseason games. In the opener, most starters play a couple of drives, or perhaps a number of plays. In Week 2, that generally expands to the first quarter, or perhaps the first half. In Week 3, starters play two or three quarters, but then in Week 4, it’s mostly the backups as the starters rest and coaches figure out the bottom of their depth chart. However, if you look at what coaches did the year before, you can figure out which teams will leave their starters in longer, which can make a difference in who wins.

Look at the quarterbacks on the depth chart

Some teams have reasons to play their starting quarterbacks more or less in the preseason. The Eagles probably won’t play Carson Wentz much because he’s just back from an ACL tear. The Colts will probably play Andrew Luck more than most teams play their quarterbacks because he needs to shake off some game-speed rust. The Jets have Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Josh McCown — three potentially solid but largely untested quarterbacks — so I don’t expect to see a lot of garbage offense from them. If you can find a team that has a strong starting quarterback and also believes in having a dependable backup instead of going on the cheap there, that’s a team to consider backing.

Check out the schedule

In the regular season, there is some variance that affects teams’ preparation, with games on Thursdays, Sundays and Mondays. In the preseason, you can have a team playing on Sunday and then the next Thursday — and vice versa. So there is the potential for a lot of difference in terms of rest and game planning. Also, if teams do training camp far from home, such as Dallas (who trains in Southern California), and then have to transition a long way back for home games in the preseason, that can affect their preparation as well. Little touches matter and make a difference in preseason games, just like they do in the regular season.