AFC Divisional Round Betting Predictions

AFC Divisional Round Betting Predictions

Written by on January 10, 2019

Of the 32 teams in the National Football League, only a quarter of them are still alive in the quest to win Super Bowl LIII. In the AFC, Kansas City will host Indianapolis on Saturday in one of the divisional round games, and New England welcomes the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in the other divisional game. Both of these are intriguing matchups, as the visiting teams both have arguments in their favor. The Colts have won 10 of 11 since opening the season with a dreadful 1-5 record, and the Chargers also mounted a furious comeback in the AFC West to wind down the season, with a loss to Baltimore as the only blemish that kept them from overtaking the Chiefs down the stretch. Which teams will advance to the AFC Championship? Check out our NFL betting predictions for this round here.

AFC Divisional Round Betting Predictions

Saturday, January 12

Indianapolis at Kansas City (4:35pm ET)

The Colts have put together the biggest turnaround of any team in the league, as most observers had written them off after they won just once in their first six games. Head coach Frank Reich has engineered a renaissance, thanks in large part to the confidence that Andrew Luck has apparently regained after a lengthy struggle. The emergence of Marlon Mack as a tough runner has given the team balance as well, and the Colts’ defense has improved in its physicality. Kansas City has a terrific offense, as the 50 touchdown passes that Patrick Mahomes has thrown this year make this an historic campaign for him in his first year leading the Chiefs’ scoring unit. Tyreek Hill has shown the sort of speed that makes him a deep threat. Losing Kareem Hunt to suspension for the remainder of the year has taken away some of the offensive balance that the Chiefs have had. Also, the problems that Chiefs have stopping the run. It would not surprise me at all to see the Colts win outright, but I’m definitely picking them to cover. AFC Divisional Round Prediction: Indianapolis 30, Kansas City 27

Sunday, January 13

Los Angeles Chargers at New England (1:05pm ET)

The New England Patriots find themselves hosting a divisional round playoff game once again, although their opponent is not a familiar one as far as the postseason goes. The woes that the Chargers have faced making it into the playoffs have largely revolved around two issues: the inability to maintain an elite defense and their propensity for committing turnovers at just the wrong time. The emergence of a pass rush led by Joey Bosa has built confidence throughout the entire defense, and Philip Rivers’ solid play this season has improved the Chargers’ ball security — although he did throw six picks in the last three games of the season. The Chargers delivered a solid road win over Baltimore in the wild card round, but do they have the mental toughness to stop Tom Brady? The Patriots still have Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan to catch the ball, but they really wish they had the transformative speed of Josh Gordon, also suspended indefinitely. Their tailback situation is decent, with Sony Michel and James White carrying the ball. However, the lack of a speed receiver is definitely a problem stretching the field, and if the New England line can’t hold off the Chargers’ pass rush, even the quick release of Brady’s arm won’t do much for the Pats. The defense is also an issue, as the Patriots have given up lots of points to some subpar teams. With that said, New England is 4-0 against teams who made the postseason this year, and they definitely turn up for big occasions. I see the Patriots winning down the stretch, but doing so on the last drive, so the Chargers cover. AFC Divisional Round Prediction: New England 34, Los Angeles 30