Why Early MLB Season Betting Offers the Best Value

The longest regular season in American professional sports is set to start this week, and one reason why bettors enjoy baseball more than other sports is that MLB betting just involves picking winners against a moneyline. In the early months of the season, the Cinderella stories open, blossom and then come to an end (in most cases), with the favorites generally settling into place by the All-Star break. In these early months, though, if you can catch on to some hot teams, you can take advantage of moneyline value while also picking winners consistently. Here are some of the reasons why early MLB season betting can bring you big profits in your gambling account.

Why Early MLB Season Betting Offers the Best Value

🚨 24 HOURS ‘TIL BASEBALL 🚨#OpeningDay pic.twitter.com/26dj2xmE73

— MLB (@MLB) 27 de marzo de 2019

Cold weather favors the pitchers

Spring training takes place in the warm climes of Florida and Arizona. However, particularly in the Midwest and on the East Coast, the first weeks of the season can bring a shock to the system as game-time temperatures dip into the 40s and perhaps even lower. It’s not unusual to have games snowed out in the early going. Cold weather generally favors pitchers, particularly those who rely on power instead of nibbling on the corners. Look for those games to be low-scoring, and look for the power pitchers to win, even if their team is an underdog.

Momentum and motivation are powerful forces

The end of the 2018 season was almost four months ago — and almost five months ago for players who didn’t make the playoffs. Many crucial players have moved on to new situations that may provide additional motivation — or may provide added stress. Consider the difference for pitcher Kenny Rogers, who dominated in Texas, Minnesota and Oakland, but who struggled under the pressure as a Yankee. Also, consider pitchers like Cole Hamels, who moved from Texas to the Cubs and got several months’ worth of rejuvenated pitching out of the situation. I see a huge start for Bryce Harper, for example, who left a difficult situation in Washington and is now the franchise face in Philadelphia.

Betting markets react slowly to news in baseball

A lot of the bigger MLB bettors rely on computer models to guide their picks, which means that the smaller sample sizes that you get in the first weeks of the season aren’t convincing to them. If a team gets off to a 17-5 start but then fades by the All-Star break, for example, there is almost an eighth of the season when bettors could make money by riding that hot streak with them, but people relying on traditional results for teams don’t take that risk. Getting up-to-date information and staying current on hot streaks can make the difference between iffy profits and major ones.

You need to know which pitchers start well, and which pitchers take a while

Rick Porcello is a terrific Major League Baseball pitcher — but not in April. James Shields was traditionally a great pitcher in April — but then highly unreliable after school gets out for the summer. The stats are out there and available, so tracking game logs for starting pitchers can give you a jump on other people who aren’t willing to do as much research.

Bullpens dominate in the early going

In the first two months of the season, managers are much less likely to ride their starting pitchers even into the seventh inning, let alone the eighth or ninth. Many of the game’s top pitchers are on pitch counts in the early weeks as managers don’t want to wear those arms out in the early part of the season. Even the best starting pitchers are more likely to have hiccups in the early part of the season as well. This means that bullpens are important, and teams that have put together solid bullpens will tend to win more in the early going, so tracking those stats can make you a lot of money.