Going into the 2023 MLB regular season, there are three legitimate contenders for the division title: the Chicago White Sox, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians ran away with the division last year by 11 games, but their 92-70 record would not have won any of the other five divisions. Cleveland swept Tampa Bay in the wild-card round and pushed the New York Yankees to five games in the AL Division Series, but can they reproduce their success this year? Let’s look at each of the five teams in the division as you plot out your MLB betting strategy for the national pastime.
MLB News: 2023 American League Central Predictions
Kansas City is several years into its rebuild now, but contending is still a long way off. The lineup has a solid young core of Vinnie Pasquantino, M.J. Melendez, and Bobby Witt, Jr. They should be joined by at least some of these prospects: Nick Pratto, Edward Olivares, Michael Massey, and Drew Waters. Witt Jr is the biggest name in this group, after he launched 20 home runs among 57 extra-base hits as a rookie. Brady Singer is an exciting starting pitcher; after he returned from Triple A in mid-May, he put up a 2.85 ERA in 23 starts. He struck out 150 hitters over 153 innings and was the team’s first ten-game winner. The veterans in the rotation are Ryan Yarbrough, Jordan Lyles, and whatever is left of Zach Greinke. Along with Jonathan Heasley and Brad Keller, this is a dreadful rotation. Lyles was the biggest addition to the rotation, and his best season ERA is 4.10. When will this team accelerate the rebuild?
Detroit sunk over $100 million in free agency before the 2022 season, and their 2021 record (77-85) became a 66-95 disaster. Their lineup was last in MLB in runs scored (3.44). Javy Baez had an awful season at the plate, as will former top draft pick Spencer Torkelson, with a .200 batting average and only eight home runs. Riley Greene showed elite defense in center field and held his own in 418 at-bats, but he needs to up the offense even more this year. Austin Meadows spent most of the season injured, and Jonathan Schoop put up the worst numbers of his career. Gregory Soto was traded for Nick Maton and Matt Vierling, and they will be expected to contribute right away. Vierling has terrific defense and an OK bat, while Maton showed potential in both areas last year wit Philadelphia. The biggest thrill for the Tigers will be Miguel Cabrera’s last season before he starts waiting for Hall of Fame eligibility.
Chicago had a ton of injuries last year, and they saw franchise player Jose Abreu head for Houston in the off-season. Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are all elite talents, but they have a hard time staying off the injured list. Tim Anderson will play at short and lead off, and he should be terrific in both positions. Andrew Benintendi arrives via free agency with a reputation as a top contact hitter, but his power isn’t that intimidating, as he has just one 20-home run season, back in 2017. Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn are two prospects who will need to produce at the plate. The starting rotation is led by Dylan Cease, who was the runner-up in AL Cy Young voting last week. Lance Lynn was terrific in 2021 but lost a bit off his fastball coming into 2022 and looked less effective all around. Lucas Giolito lost velocity last season also, but Michael Kopech could be a playoff starter.
Cleveland ended up winning the division last year in a season when no one really seemed to want the title for several months. Shane Bieber had a terrific 2022 and looks to chase a second Cy Young AWard. Bieber had a 2.88 ERA over 200 innings, and his slider’s pitch value was 15.8 runs above average, the best in MLB. Triston McKenzie hit a career high in innings pitched with a 2.95 ERA. Cal Quantrill had his second straight season with an ERA below 3.40, although his playoff ERA was an unsightly 5.40. Emmanuel Clase, the All-Star closer, remains at the back of the Cleveland bullpen, which posted a 1.08 ERA in the playoffs. If Cleveland wins the division, the pitching staff will be the reason once again.
Minnesota traded away Luis Arraez, the defending AL batting champion, but they brought back Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, both of whom make the MVP conversation each year. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler will also appear in the outfield as both of them look to recover from disappointing 2022 seasons. Catchers Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez bring stability to the position. Jose Mirando hit .268 with 15 home runs last year and will take over at third base. The pitching rotation does not have a true ace, but Sonny Gray will likely start on Opening Day and should lead the starters. Pablo Lopez has a ridiculously deadly change-up and used it to post a 1.83 ERA through April and May last year. He finished with a 3.75 ERA, so this year’s focus will be stamina. The bullpen has Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez, both right-handers who can bring the gas.
Finishing Order Prediction:
- Minnesota (Division Winner)
- Cleveland (Wild Card)
- Chicago
- Detroit
- Kansas City
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