There are few plays in all of sport that have the excitement of a home run. It starts with the sound that the bat makes when the ball caroms off its sweet spot, and then it continues when everyone on the field reacts. The pitcher turns his head with a yank, and both the catcher and umpire rise and take off their masks to see the ball travel. The batter might trot out of the box or even pause to take it in before starting his run. The long ball got out of control in the steroid era, with Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and other hitters cheating to put up home runs in bunches. This year, according to Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus, a delay in starting the season will benefit pitchers as hitters struggle to get their swing timing down, but the home run will be back, you can be sure. Check out the latest sports betting odds on which sluggers will belt the most home runs in 2020 as you consider your MLB futures wagering.
MLB: Odds to Hit the Most Home Runs
Player Odds
- Mike Trout +1000
- Aaron Judge +1100
- Pete Alonso, Giancarlo Stanton +1200
- Joey Gallo, Cody Bellinger, Yordan Alvarez +1300
- Christian Yelich +1400
- Ronald Acuna Jr +1800
- Nolan Arenado, Miguel Sano +2000
- Eloy Jiminez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr +2200
- Jorge Soler +2400
- Eugenio Suarez, Matt Olsen +2500
- Gleyber Torres, Khris Davis, J.D. Martinez, Bryce Harper +3000
- Trevor Story +3500
- Alex Bregman, Rhys Hoskins +4000
- George Springer +4500
- Kris Bryant +5500
Aaron Judge enters his fourth season in the Bronx. He is way up the odds list because he belted 52 home runs as a rookie (and because he plays for the Yankees). However, in that rookie season, he didn’t win the home run race — that went to Giancarlo Stanton, then with the Miami Marlins. However, durability is an issue. He played in 155 games in that rookie campaign but has missed 110 games combined over the last two seasons with oblique muscle problems. However, given that Stanton and Gleyber Torres could hit more home runs than he might, especially if he goes back on the disabled list at some point, and given that both of them offer more value, it’s hard to settle on Judge.
Pete Alonso had the fifth-best hard contact rate in Major League Baseball last year and was fourth in home runs per at-bat. However, the Mets phenom won’t be surprising anyone this year, as cover stories are all over the sports media about his giant bat, and the Mets don’t have a whole lot around him in the lineup, so you can bet that the free-swinging first baseman won’t get a lot of grooved fastballs to hit. He did hit 11 home runs in September, but that is when rosters expand to 40, so his opponents who were no longer in contention were more likely to put prospects on the mound, giving him more opportunities.
Mike Trout is the favorite for good reason, as he led Major League Baseball in 2019. However, he is also somewhat of an injury risk. A shorter 2020 regular season would make a disabled list stint less likely for the Angels’ slugger, and the arrival of Joe Maddon in Los Angeles to take the helm of the Angels’ franchise means that roster and lineup management should improve.
Joey Gallo is an interesting choice. The Texas Rangers don’t typically have big home run numbers because that Texas heat tends to wilt players in July and August. However, Globe Life Park is opening in 2020 and will be an indoor stadium. Of course, that assumes that MLB will be opening in stadiums this summer. A plan just released hints at the season starting in Arizona for all 30 teams, using the Diamondbacks’ stadium as well as minor league parks around Greater Phoenix, which would mean outdoor baseball all season — including games played in some intense temperatures.
