MLB Astros @ Yankees Odds, Pick and Betting Prediction

The Houston Astros have crept within a half-game of the Texas Rangers in the American League West, as the Rangers’ pitching and hitting have taken on water and the Astros have found their rhythm. The two teams picked up an ace each from the New York Mets before the trade deadline as the Astros brought Justin Verlander back south and the Rangers dealt for Max Scherzer. Now the Astros head to New York for a four-game set with the Yankees, who just got Aaron Judge back off the injured list but have nonetheless dropped three straight and are 11 games behind Baltimore in a topsy-turvy American League East. Check out our MLB betting picks for each game.

MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros at N.Y. Yankees (August 3-6)

Cristian Javier (HOU) vs Clarke Schmidt (NY)

When: Thursday, August 3, 7:15 pm ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Live Stream: FOX
Projected Pitching Matchup: Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.33 ERA) (HOU) vs Clarke Schmidt (7-6, 4.39 ERA) (NY)

Cristian Javier has a 6.86 ERA over four starts in the month of July. Most of the damage came when the Rangers battered him around for eight runs on nine hits over 4 ⅓ innings in a game the Astros came back to win, 12-11. In his last two outings, in Oakland and against Tampa Bay, he has permitted five runs on four hits and eight walks over 11 ⅔ innings combined, striking out 14. The Yankees have the bats to take advantage of Javier, but will they?

Clarke Schmidt has four wins in the month of July, he’s only finished six innings once in those four games and has given up either two or three earned runs in each of them. His last two starts, against Kansas City and Baltimore, saw him throw 10 ⅔ combined innings and allow six earned runs on ten hits, striking out four and walking two. The Yankees won both games, beating the Royals, 5-4, and the Orioles, 8-3. He’s gotten into a serviceable groove, and the team is hitting behind him. Yankees to win.

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Hunter Brown (HOU) vs Luis Severino (NY)

When: Friday, August 4, 7:05 pm ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Live Stream: Apple TV+
Projected Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown (7-7, 4.12 ERA) (HOU) vs Luis Severino (2-5, 7.49 ERA) (NY)

Hunter Brown has a 5.92 ERA for the month of July, as he started the month with three straight losses (to Texas, Seattle and Colorado). However, the last two outings have calmed down a bit as he has allowed just four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks over 12 innings combined against wins over Oakland and Tampa Bay. He struck out four batters in each game, and while the win over Oakland isn’t that impressive given their talent level, Tampa Bay is a wild-card contender at this point in time.

Luis Severino has fallen off the table in July, posting an unsightly 11.22 ERA for the month. He did hold the Angels to a run on six hits over six innings on July 17 in a game the Yankees would lose in extra innings, but he has allowed at least seven earned runs in three of his five starts for the month. This includes a nine-run disaster on Sunday in Baltimore as the Orioles pounded him for 10 hits over 3 ⅓ innings. While I don’t see Severino doing that poorly again, I also don’t see him settling down to dominate a hot Houston lineup. Astros to win.

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J.P. France (HOU) vs Undecided (NY)

When: Saturday, August 5, 1:05 pm ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Live Stream: MLB Network, MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: J.P. France (7-3, 2.85 ERA) (HOU) vs Undecided (NY)

I see J.P. France feasting against the Yankees on a spot starter day for New York. France has a 2.30 ERA for the month of July and has picked up four victories in the month alone. In his last three starts, he has held Oakland, Texas and Cleveland to four runs (three earned) over 21 combined innings, allowing 18 hits and five walks while striking out 14. Day games also tend to see offense dim a bit, so this could be a complete-game win for France. Astros to win.

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Framber Valdez (HOU) vs Carlos Rodon (NY)

When: Sunday, August 6, 1:35 pm ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Live Stream: MLB.tv
Projected Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA) (HOU) vs Carlos Rodon (1-4, 6.29 ERA) (NY)

Framber Valdez’s ERA dropped from 3.29 to 3.07 after Tuesday’s no-hitter against Cleveland. He struck out seven while issuing just the one walk that kept him from perfect-game status, needing only 93 pitches to secure the win. In case you’re expecting Valdez to make it back-to-back no-hitters, you should know that Johnny Vander Meer is the only pitcher ever to accomplish that feat – back in 1938. In his three starts before the no-no, he had allowed 15 runs on 21 hits over 15 combined innings against the Angels, Oakland and Texas. So while Valdez’s night was historic, we also need to look at his longer-term trends.

Carlos Rodon finished July nicely, holding the Mets to a run on four hits over 5 ⅔ innings in a 3-1 win on the 26th. However, the start to August was not pretty, as he only made it four innings before getting pulled after permitting four runs on four hits, including a pair of home runs, needing 97 pitches just to make it through those frames. Astros to win.

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