The PGA Tour makes a stop at Vidanta in Puerto Vallarta for the Mexico Open on its way from California to Florida. The defending champ, Tony Finau, is the favorite this time around after cracking the top 20 at the Genesis Invitational last week. Finau beat Jon Rahm by three shots here in 2023. Some of the other notable players in this field include Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo, and Nicolai Hojgaard. Since this isn’t one of the strongest fields we will see on the tour this year, the sports betting values are a little more wide open. Let’s take a look at the Golf odds as well as some notes on the course and wager card suggestions.
Golf Betting Odds and Favorites to Win 2024 PGA Mexico Open
- Tony Finau +625
- Nicolai Hojgaard +1150
- Stephan Jager +1800
- Keith Mitchell +1900
- Emiliano Grillo +2000
- Thomas Detry +2000
- Thorbjorn Olesen +2000
- Taylor Pendrith +2000
- Ryan Fox +2500
- Patrick Rodgers +2500
- Erik Van Rooyen +2500
- Davis Thompson +2500
- Jake Knapp +3000
- Mark Hubbard +3500
- Maverick McNealy +3500
- Ryo Hisatsune +3500
- Doug Ghim +3500
- Rai Aaron +4000
- Brandon Wu +4000
- Cameron Champ +4000
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The course runs almost 7,500 and plays at par 71. There are four par-5 holes, averaging 593 yards in length; five par-3 holes, averaging 195 yards; and nine par-4 holes, averaging 457 yards. This makes it one of the longer courses; the average par-4 length is above most of the other PGA Tour courses except for Augusta National. In the last two editions of the Mexico Open, the top-ten finishers have gained over three strokes on average off the tee. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau won in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and their driving length is elite. They each gained more than five strokes with their driver when they won.
The weather forecast calls for sun and temperatures in the mid-80s for all four days. That should make for reliable conditions. So look for players who can hit bombs off the tee, and then look for players who excel at approaches with long irons. At Vidanta, 40% of approach shots come from at least 200 yards, which is a Tour high. Over 60% come from more than 175 yards. The 24 players who cracked the top ten here in one of the last two years gained four strokes, on average, on the field with their iron shots. On the greens, players make under the Tour average when putts are longer than five feet. The grass is sticky seaside paspalum, which runs slower than average. Look for players who gain strokes with their putting.
Maverick McNealy is probably the best putter in this field, and he gets more length from his driver than most people recognize because he’s not near the top of most leaderboards at signature events. His par-5 game is strong, and his short game can save par when the driver goes awry. He has played at a top level on courses that emphasize the driver in the past, and he could win coming out of this field.
Nicolai Hojgaard puts within the top 20 of this field, and his driving is also top-shelf for this group. The only flaw in his game when it comes to Vidanta is his long-iron play. His wedge shots are solid, but it’s hard to see him nailing enough approaches from beyond 200 yards to win. Could he sneak by if some of the other players falter? Possibly, but he’s not offering enough value this week.
Charley Hoffman finished second at the Waste Management Phoenix Open two weeks ago, earning him a shot at the Genesis Invitational. On Thursday he posted a nifty 69, but he dropped back down to earth over the last three days, finishing 50th. Most of the players who finished ahead of him are not in Puerto Vallarta, though, so he’s an interesting value pick.
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2023 PGA Mexico Open
Golf Betting Odds and Analysis for 2023 Mexico Open
The PGA Tour heads to the beach this weekend, as the Mexico Open at Vidanta is set for Thursday through Sunday at Vidante Vallarta in Puerto Vallarta. The course runs 7,456 yards and is a par 71. Jon Rahm returns as the defending champion (and as the currently top-ranked player in the world), and Tony Finau is another top-shelf PGA player who will appear. The rest of the field has less experience, as there are only three players in the Official World Golf Rankings’ top 50 in the field. This is a course that rewards driver accuracy, with two par-3s that measure more than 200 yards, two par-5s that measure more than 600, and five par-4s that run more than 475. Let’s look at the contender odds (+10000 or better) for this tournament, as well as some Golf betting suggestions.
| Contender Odds | |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +240 |
| Tony Finau | +750 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1800 |
| Gary Woodland | +2500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard, Patrick Rodgers | +2800 |
| Byeong Hun An | +3500 |
| Beau Hossler, Maverick McNealy, Stephan Jaeger | +4000 |
| Aaron Rai, Alex Noren | +4500 |
| Emiliano Grillo, S.H. Kim, Taylor Pendrith | +5000 |
| Ben Martin, Alex Smalley, Brandon Wu | +5500 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +6000 |
| Robby Shelton, Andrew Putnam, Lee Hodges, Luke List, Will Gordon, Matt Wallace, Garrick Higgo, Harry Hall | +6600 |
| David Lipsky, Chez Reavie, Lanto Griffin, M.J. Daffue, Mark Hubbard, Patton Kizzire | +8000 |
| Dylan Wu, Nate Lashley | +9000 |
| Akshay Bhatia, Andrew Novak, Charley Hoffman, Eric Cole, Michael Kim, Vincent Norrman | +10000 |
Obviously,
Jon Rahm
and Tony Finau are smart picks. Rahm is playing at an extremely high level and was able to master this course last year. Finau is also a highly ranked player who has the driving accuracy to do well here. He won the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the 3M Open running away last year. He is tops on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, fourth in Strokes Gained: Total, and fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. You’d be right if you picked either or both of these as part of your wagering strategy. But what about the rest of the field?Gary Woodland
won the U.S. Open in 2019, and he has two top-ten finishes so far in 2023 (T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open and the Genesis Invitational). The field at the Genesis Invitational had most of the Tour’s elite names in it, and he was near the top of the leaderboard anyway. Woodland started the 2023 Masters with a 68 and ended up finishing T14. At the RBC Heritage, he came in T31. In 14 starts in 2023, he has made 11 cuts. In 2022, he finished T24 at the Mexico Open.Aaron Rai
won the Scottish Open in conditions that will be similar to what the field faces this weekend, at least in terms of coastal winds. He led the field after the first round at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 with his team in New Orleans last week. His strongest area is his long iron play, which will come in useful on this long course.Stephen Jaeger
has made 12 of 15 cuts so far in 2023, with one top-ten finish and three other top-30 finishes. He is currently 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 44th on the whole Tour. Most of this comes from his short game; he is sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. In 2022, he finished T15 at the Mexico Open, but his run of play in 2023 has been significantly better.Harry Hall
has done well at the resort courses, coming in T13 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and T7 at the Puerto Rico Open. He is one of the top putters on the PGA Tour, and resort courses tend to favor solid putters because of their greens. He is second in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting, with only Maverick McNealy posting a better metric. He also finished T28 in his last event, the Valero Texas Open.Bet On the PGA Tour Today
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PGA Mexico Open
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