UFC 223 Betting Preview & MMA Betting Prediction 

On Saturday night, the biggest MMA event of the season will unfold at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. One of the most intriguing matchups on the card will feature Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. They are the best two lightweight fighters in the MMA world not named Conor McGregor (who keeps away from UFC, trying to get more money than what they are willing to offer him at this time). But this main card bout should be sensational. Ferguson is known for his creative approaches in the cage and his ability to turn situations that seem innocuous into finishes in a matter of seconds. He also has cardio endurance that ranks him well above that of most of the rest of the division. Nurmagomedov brings a ferocity into the cage that few fighters have been able to match. So if you’re looking for a bout to make your pay-per-view worth it (and to attract your sports betting dollars), that’s a solid place to begin. Here’s a look at the MMA betting odds & picks for UFC 223.

UFC 223 Betting Preview & MMA Betting Prediction

Full Card

• Tony Ferguson vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
• Rose Namajunas vs Joanna Jedrzeczyk
• Calvin Kattar vs Renato Moicano
• Michael Chiesa vs Anthony Pettis
• Al Iaquinta vs Paul Felder
• Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Felice Herrig
• Ray Borg vs Brandon Moreno
• Joe Lauzon vs Chris Gruetzemacher
• Bec Rawlings vs Ashlee Evans-SmithAlex Caceres vs Artem Lobov
• Evan Dunham vs Mairbek Taisumov

Ferguson (25-3) (+205) vs Nurmagomedov (25-0) (-245)

Eleven of Ferguson’s 25 wins have come by the knockout, and he enters this fight on a 10-bout winning streak, taking down Kevin Lee in his last match in October, which game him the interim UFC lightweight belt. That fight wasn’t an easy win for him, as he had to absorb some big blows and got taken down several times. Even so, he was able to force a submission in the third round.. His last loss came back in 2012, when he lost to Michael Johnson. On the whole, Ferguson brings balance and excitement to the cage, throwing strikes by the truckload, averaging 5.09 significant strikes per minute with 42.9% accuracy. That is one reason why five of his last six bouts have won Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night honors at the end of the card. Nurmagomedov enters the bout undefeated, with 16 of his 25 victories coming by knockout or submission. In his last bout, back in December, he took down Edson Barboza. He doesn’t average as many strikes per minute as Ferguson (4.11) but he lands more of them (50.3%). In UFC bouts, Nurmagomedov is 9-0, and his win over Barboza earned Performance of the Night kudos, as he took Barboza down four times and landed 154 strikes. He may well be MMA’s best grappler right now, and he lands his strikes accurately. I’m a little surprised by this line, especially given how well Ferguson has fought since that loss to Michael Johnson. Given how even this fight is likely to be, I’m taking Ferguson to win. My decision might be different if the lines were closer, but with the even chances that these fighters have, I have to go with the bigger pot.

Namajunas (8-3) (+130) vs Jedrzejczyk (14-1) (-150)

Namajunas enters this fight having won six bouts by submission, and having won five or her last six overall — including a November win over Jedrzeczyk. In that bout, Namajunas delivered a knockout in the first round that brought her the UFC women’s strawweight belt, sending Jedrzejczyk to the mat with a big left and then ending the fight with some big bombs down on the canvas. Namajunas likes to mix kicks and jabs — but it’s probably her skills on the ground that are the best, as she has shown expertise with the rear-naked choke. She has considerable upper body strengths and long legs to give her leverage. Jedrzejczyk enters as the favorite despite taking the loss back in November. If you look at the numbers this makes sense, as she lands 6.76 significant strikes per minute (as opposed to 3.56 for Namajunas) with more accuracy (49.8% as opposed to 45.1%). Namajunas averages almost three more takedowns, though, so Jedrzejczyk needs to be careful if things go to the ground. If Jedrzejczyk wants to win this one, she needs to keep the fight upright and exploit her boxing background. It could just take one big blow, though, to keep that belt around Namajunas’ waist. Given how thoroughly Namajunas dominated the pace in this fight, and given the bombs she was landing the first time, I’m definitely picking her again, especially with her on the value side of the moneyline.