2018 Australian Open Men’s Final Betting Preview: Federer vs Cilic

Roger Federer has yet to lose a set in any of the first six rounds of the 2018 Australian Open tournament, moving into the final after Hyeon Chung had to withdraw due to a blister on his left foot — one that he had gotten shaved and taken injections to fight the pain — but also one that is similar to the problem that Marin Cilic faced when he took on Federer in the Wimbledon final last year. So now Federer moves to take on Cilic once again, although Cilic has had some tougher matches on his road to the final, such as his four-set win over Pablo Carreno Busta in the fourth round and his comeback over Rafael Nadal in five sets in the quarterfinal. As you consider your Tennis betting strategy for this final, take a look at our prediction.

2018 Australian Open Men’s Final Betting Preview: Roger Federer vs Marin Cilic

“On the court, he’s a winner. You can see it on the way he behaves on the court. He’s there to win and not just to be there.”@rogerfederer knows he will have his hands full with Marin Cilic.#AusOpen pic.twitter.com/P6rGWkOKSG

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 26, 2018

When: Sunday, January 28, 2018, 3:30am ET Where: Melbourne Park, Melbourne TV: ESPN Radio: None Live Stream: WatchESPN Tennis Odds: Federer -430 / Cilic +330

Why should you put your money on Cilic?

Marin Cilic has already had to pass two difficult tests to get to the final. Getting pushed to four sets in the fourth round and then five sets in the quarterfinal meant that he had to elevate his game to respond to challenges. Federer has had no such challenges on his way to the final — so this could give Cilic a slight mental edge. There is, of course, the fact that Cilic has spent six hours more in play in this tournament than Federer has, and that collective fatigue could weigh on Cilic. The plus side of this is that Cilic has had to elevate his game to that constant attack mode, particularly in his win over Nadal, and he showed the sort of timing that can carry him to a win against anyone. Cilic has only beaten Federer once in nine attempts, but he comes in healthy and has an attacking style that can win, if he pushes all the way. This would be an upset, but not an unthinkable one. The chance to gain redemption for that panic attack that he went into at Wimbledon against Federer (caused by that blister) could provide powerful motivation as well.

Why should you put your money on Federer?

Federer advanced to his third major final in his last five major tournaments (in 2017, he advanced to the final at the Australian Open and at Wimbledon). The most sweat he has had to break in any set has been to push to a tiebreaker. In those last two finals, Federer has not demonstrated any of the sort of nervousness that can lead to a downfall once you reach the final stage of a tournament. One mistake that Federer coud make here is to sit back and let Cilic make the mistakes. Cilic does well when he is in full-bore attack mode, and sitting back and waiting for that could tilt things the other way. However, Federer has not made that mistake in any of his previous wins over Cilic — and Federer has the advantage of being the dominant player of his generation. History has shown that Cilic will break before Federer will.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Will this be the match where Federer finally drops a set? One prop available for this tournament was that Federer would advance all the way without dropping a single one — and that streak remains on the line for the final. Given that Cilic is healthy, and given that Cilic has looked strong in the face of several challenges in the prior round (and his smooth straight-set win in the semis) I like Cilic to push Federer hard. However, I don’t think he will push him hard enough to take the trophy away. I predict that Federer will take the  win, 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4.