Tennessee at Kansas City NFL Wild Card Odds & Betting Pick

Tennessee at Kansas City NFL Wild Card Odds & Betting Pick

Written by on January 4, 2018

The Tennessee Titans visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of the wild card round of the NFL playoffs on Saturday afternoon. Tennessee earned the fifth seed with a 15-10 win over Jacksonville last weekend, while Kansas City escaped the Denver Broncos with a 27-24 win and finished the season as AFC West champions. These two teams met last year, with Tennessee escaping with a 19-17 win. This is Tennessee’s first appearance in the postseason since 2008. Take a look at our NFL Wild Card odds preview of this playoff opener.

Tennessee at Kansas City NFL Wild Card Odds & Betting Pick

When: Saturday, January 6, 2018, 4:20pm ET Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City TV: ABC / ESPN Radio: 92.9 FM (Tennessee) / 1350 AM (Kansas City) Live Stream: NFL Game Pass NFL Wild Card Odds: Kansas City (-8), O/U 44.5

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 4°C/39°F
  • Humidity: 35%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 21%
  • Wind: 11 mph S
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why should you bet on the Titans?

Tennessee lost three of their last four down the stretch. While one of those (losing to the Rams) isn’t all that surprising, losses at Arizona and San Francisco, with the Cardinals using a backup quarterback and the 49ers still working in Jimmy Garoppolo, are distressing signs for a playoff time. Marcus Mariota has not thrown the ball as well this season, picking up just over 3,200 yards through the air and throwing more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (!3). Tailback Derrick Henry had a decent year, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, but DeMarco Murray (knee) remains questionable for the postseason. The Titans’ defense has played well at times this year. They did permit only 229 yards in that 15-10 win over Jacksonville, and they have the fourth-best running defense in the league. However, they give up an average of 22.2 points per game, and they do give up a lot of yards through the air. If Alex Smith is on for Kansas City, then this could be a long day for the Titans. If you like the Titans in this game, then you see the Chiefs slipping back into that offensive malaise that held them for much of the middle of the season.

Why should you put your money on the Chiefs?

Kansas City definitely put together a season of streaks. They opened the season with a 5-0 start and then dropped six of seven — only to win their last four in a row to salt away the division. Quarterback Alex Smith started the year looking like he would be an all-Pro but ended up failing to make the Pro Bowl. He did throw for over 4,000 yards and had 26 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. Tailback Kareem Hunt, who famously opened his NFL career with a fumble on his first carry against the Patriots, redeemed himself with a huge game in Week One and a huge season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry on the way to 1,327 yards on the ground. Wideout Tyreek Hill also had a terrific season, catching seven touchdown passes and gaining 1,183 yards on receptions. The Chiefs’ defense has one of the better cornerback duos in Marcus Peters and Terrance Mitchell, who combined to pick off 9 passes and deflect 26 passes. However, the team permitted 21.2 points per game, ranking them 15th in the league, so there are ways to find your way down the field against them. If the Titans can get a strong running attack going and the Chiefs don’t fill the gaps, the Titans could control the rhythm of the game.

Latest NFL Wild Card Odds Trends

  • Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games
  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 8 games

Expert Pick and Final Prediction

I’m a big fan of Marcus Mariota, but it doesn’t seem like he’s ever fully recovered from that hamstring injury that sidelined him early in the season. He is running the ball again, but he looks more tentative in the pocket than he did early this season or last season. I see the Chiefs taking advantage of that and mounting a ferocious pass rush, and I also see the Chiefs moving the ball effectively against Tennessee. I predict a final score of Kansas City 30, Tennessee 20.