Six Most Intriguing 2018 NFL Betting Picks Heading into the Season

We’re just over four weeks away from the beginning of the 2018 regular season in the National Football League, which means that we’re right at the start of the preseason — and it’s time to start considering your fantasy football teams as well as your futures wagers for the season. We’ve put together a list of six bets for you to look at as we move closer and closer to September 6 — the opening game of the 2018 NFL regular season.

Six Most Intriguing Bets Heading into the 2018 NFL Season

Hey @NFL, Welcome back 😀

— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) August 2, 2018

Who will win the Super Bowl?

Right now, the two favorites from the AFC are New England (+500) and Pittsburgh (+1000). However, the Patriots are going with a quarterback in his 40s in Tom Brady — who already has a frayed relationship with his coach, and with a tight end in Rob Gronkowski who has suffered from multiple injuries the past few seasons and who had mulled retirement. What’s the hunger factor going to be there? In Pittsburgh, the Steelers need to retool their defense, as they put up 42 in the divisional playoff but couldn’t keep Jacksonville from mounting a game-winning drive late. In the NFC, the three co-favorites are Philadelphia, Green Bay and Minnesota, all at +1200. Minnesota has a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins, and Green Bay is returning Aaron Rodgers — but they lost Jordy Nelson, so they could use a speedy wideout. Philadelphia would be the first repeat champion since New England did it in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XXXIX. So there are questions for each favorite.

Who will make the biggest regression this year?

Minnesota won 13 games last year, with a 3-2 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. Their reward is a schedule that is the seventh toughest for this season. Their defense is stacked, once again, and they have the best wide receiver tandem in the sport. Their tailback blew out his ACL but should be ready to play — and they upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. With that said, their defense held opponents to just a 25.3% conversion rate, a historically low number, and the odds are against that continuing. Also, the Bears and Packers will be better this season, with Aaron Rodgers returning and the Bears adding talent. So expect the Vikings to slip in their win total. Ten or 11 wins sounds more likely for this team — but that could still win them the NFC North. Then there’s also Buffalo, who won nine games last year and went to the wild card round and lost at Jacksonville. However, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has gone to Cleveland, and AJ McCarron is set to watch the reins until Josh Rosen is ready, but I don’t expect them to get more than six wins this season.

Who will have the biggest improvement this year?

The answer here has to be Cleveland. They have Taylor at quarterback, and they have Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson to run the ball — and Jarvis Landry and Josh Gordon to catch it. Their defense was already pretty good — and their -28 turnover margin was historically bad. Fumbles have a lot to do with luck — which went against the Browns time and time again. Those factors combine to suggest the Browns will be much better this season. The other answer here is Houston, who will get Deshaun Watson back. The Texans averaged 31 points per game in the six contest he started, but that dropped to 12.9 points once Watson went down with an ACL tear. Watson is back, so watch out.

Who will win the divisions this year?

The division with the most intrigue is the AFC South, as each team has major questions to answer — but also has a lot of talent to answer them with. Will Andrew Luck show his earlier form for the Colts? Will Watson’s knee hold up for Houston? How will Tennessee respond to the retirement of DeMarco Murray? Will Blake Bortles regress for Jacksonville? The AFC West also has a lot of intrigue, but all four of those teams have more work to do in order to contend. The NFC West will also have some fascination with the renewal of the rivalry between the Rams and the 49ers — both possible contenders.

Who will win each conference this year?

You need both a solid offense and a physical defense to win in the NFL right now, and while the Eagles and Vikings look most likely to have solid units on both sides of the ball, they’re not the two favorites. Some of this has to do with Patriot fever, but a lot has to do with franchises that have not proven themselves. It would not surprise me to see Philadelphia return to the Super Bowl, but the season is a slog, and if they’re not hungry after winning a championship, Minnesota, Green Bay and the Rams certainly are. In the AFC, it would not surprise me at all to see a Jacksonville or an Oakland or a Houston come out of that conference, with the holes that the Patriots and the Steelers have.

How many games will a particular team win?

Win-loss total bets can add intrigue late in a season, as you want teams to win (or to lose) in order to stay on the right side of your bet. Injuries can play a role in this as the season goes forward, but these sorts of bets make the whole season interesting.