NFL Conference Championships: Over/Under Picks

This Sunday features the NFL Conference Championship games for the 2018 postseason. In the matinee, the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars, appearing in their first conference championship since 1999, head to New England as 9 ½-point underdogs to take on the Patriots, who are in their seventh straight conference championship. In the prime time affair, the Minnesota Vikings head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in a battle of backup quarterbacks. We’ve already done game previews for both of these NFL betting matchups, but here we take a look at the point total wagers.

NFL Conference Championships: Over/Under Picks

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AFC Championship: Jacksonville (+9.5) at New England (O/U 46.5) (3:35pm ET, CBS)

Jacksonville put up exactly 10 points in their home wild card win over Buffalo. It looked like Blake Bortles would have a hard time even completing a screen pass when the Jaguars headed up to Pittsburgh for the divisional playoff, but then we saw the Blake Bortles that showed up for the first two-thirds of the season, as he led drive after drive and saw the team to a dramatic 45-41 win in the Steel City. Which Bortles will show up in the AFC Championship? The answer to this is the answer to the question as to whether you should take the over or the under in this game. The Patriots will get their points in this game — Brady is just too good at sending the ball down the field, and having Chris Hogan back means that his full of complement of targets (Hogan, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola — who came out of nowhere to have 11 catches last week against the Titans — Brandin Cooks and James White) are all healthy and ready to hit the field. Dion Lewis is just the first of a talented crew in the backfield who can mix things up and carry the ball as well. But will the Jaguars get theirs? Well, Tennessee was able to move the ball at times against the Patriots, who even now have some holes in their secondary that opposing teams can exploit. This weekend forecast does not feature snow or precipitation in the forecast, and Sunday’s high should be 46, so the cold won’t be so bitter as to have much effect on the offense. If the day gets windy (forecasts have it around 16 mile per hour), passing could be affected, but Bortles should have some open receivers — if he can get time in the pocket. New England sacked Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota eight times last week, setting a team record for the postseason. NFL Conference Championship Pick: Given that last week saw 86 combined points between the Steelers and the Jaguars, I like this game to feature some big point totals well. I’m leaning toward the “over” in this matchup.

NFC Championship: Minnesota (-3.5) at Philadelphia (O/U 40) (6:40pm ET, FOX)

With a high of 50 degrees in the afternoon before the temperature slips down into the 40s — and with no precipitation expected — this will actually be a pleasant day in the City of Brotherly Love. This time of year, the temperatures can be much colder — and the prospect of snow or ice had to be something that the Vikings (who play in a dome) were sweating. However, this should be a good day for football. Even so, this will be a day when the yards and the points will be tough to come by. Both of these teams can shut down the run. It was only when the New Orleans Saints stopped throwing interceptions last week that they were able to move the ball. However, Drew Brees brings a lot more offensively than Nick Foles has so far for the Eagles in his backup role. Foles looked terrific in his first game against the New York Giants, but in his wins over Oakland and Atlanta (and in the Eagles’ Week 17 6-0 loss to Dallas), he looked tentative, holding onto the ball too long and making mistakes. His counterpart, Case Keenum, has had a lot of success running the Viking offense, but his throws down the field can tend to flutter, and the winds do swirl at Lincoln Financial Field, so this could be a day where he doesn’t do much beyond the mid-range pass. NFL Conference Championship Pick: I see the Vikings getting the win here, but I also see this being of the 19-13 or the 16-13 variety — both of which will feature point totals below 40. So for this game, I’m looking hard at the “under.”