Colts vs Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Odds & Expert Pick

It’s been just over five years since the last time the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs met in the postseason. In that game, Indianapolis trailed by 28 points shortly after halftime. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck had already thrown three interceptions, and Indianapolis could not run the ball. However, an Indy touchdown came, followed by a sack-fumble and another quick score. The Chiefs added a field goal and then the Colts added two more touchdowns in just five minutes, the second coming on a play in which Luck handed the ball off, the Colts fumbled, Luck picked up the ball and romped into the end zone. The final score was Indy 45, Kansas City 44. The Chiefs’ head coach, Andy Reid, has an 11-13 career record in postseason games, a .458 winning percentage. His regular season winning percentage is .611, and he has only gone to one Super Bowl, the fewest of any coach who has led his team in a minimum of 20 playoff games. No one else has coached more playoff games without winning more than one Super Bowl — and Reid hasn’t won one yet. Can that change? We’ll see — check out our NFL betting preview of the Chiefs’ divisional round matchup with the Colts.

Colts vs Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Odds & Expert Pick

When: Saturday, January 12, 2019, 4:35pm ET Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City TV: NBC Radio: Westwood One Live Stream: NFL Live NFL Divisional Round Odds: Kansas City -5 O/U 56

Why should you bet on the Colts?

Indianapolis started 1-5. Since Week 6, when they lost 42-34 to the New York Jets, the Colts have won 10 of 11 games, with the lone exception a 6-0 shutout loss in Jacksonville. That includes winning four of their last five on the road, and the key has been the resurgence of quarterback Andrew Luck. He has thrown for 4,815 yards this season — and for 41 touchdowns. He has at least three touchdown passes in nine of his last 14 games, and his favorite targets have been Eric Ebron and T.Y. Hilton, who have combined for 20 of those touchdowns. Marlon Mack put up a 1,000-yard season with 1,056 yards and ten scores. The Colts’ defense has also buckled down, permitting just under 22 points per game. They also looked dominant in a 21-7 rout of Houston on the road in the wild-card round. The Colts haven’t just been winning; they’ve been covering as well. They have covered in four of their last five overall and in six of their last nine games against AFC competition. In their last eight games at Kansas City, they have covered seven times. If you like the Colts, you see their defense finding a way to limit the Chiefs’ video-game speed offense while taking advantage of the fact that the Chiefs can’t stop the run and also give up backbreaking pass plays — and that Andy Reid’s clock management skills will lead to at least one crucial gaffe down the stretch.

Why should you put your money on the Chiefs?

After a strong start to the season, the Chiefs finished 3-3 down the stretch — although they have won seven of eight at home. Patrick Mahomes is having an historic season in his first year as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, throwing for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns and just a dozen interceptions. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for 22 receiving touchdowns, but the Chiefs’ rushing game is still looking for consistency after the suspension of Kareem Hunt. It’s the defense that represents the bigger question mark, though, as the Chiefs allow over 405 yards per game. Kansas City has only covered once in their last four games at home and just once in their last 10 postseason games. They hosted a playoff game last year and gave up a three-touchdown halftime lead to Tennessee in the wild card round. If you like the Chiefs, you see them reasserting their offense and outscoring the Colts in the sort of barnburner game that has marked most of the Chiefs’ wins this season.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Colts come in as the hotter team — and as the more complete team as far as a running game and a defense go. I like the Colts to keep winning on the road, by the final score of Indianapolis 31, Kansas City 27.