NFL Conference Round Over/Under Picks

On Sunday, we will find out which two teams will take part in Super Bowl LIII, as the NFC and AFC Championships will get underway. In the NFC Championship, the New Orleans Saints will welcome the Los Angeles Rams in a reprise of their game in the Superdome on November 4, when the Saints opened up a 35-17 halftime lead and held on for a 45-35 win. In the AFC Championship, New England heads to Kansas City, looking to beat the Chiefs on the road after already having beaten them at home, 43-40, on October 14. The point totals for over/under NFL betting are 57 for both games. Take a look at our thoughts about which side you should choose for Sunday’s action.

NFL Conference Round Over/Under Picks

The Conference Championship Game assignments are set. #NFLPlayoffs#LARvsNO | #NEvsKC pic.twitter.com/xFx9z1R2L7

— NFL Officiating (@NFLOfficiating) January 15, 2019

NFC Championship

L.A. Rams at New Orleans (O/U 57) (3:05pm ET, FOX)

Two stellar offenses roll into the Superdome on Sunday. However, you also have two fairly good defenses, as the Saints held Philadelphia to 14 points in their divisional playoff, while the Rams held Dallas to 22 points. In those divisional round games, the Saints and Eagles totaled 34 points, while the Rams and Cowboys totaled 52 points. When the Saints and Rams tangled back in November, their game resulted in 80 total points. However, defensive intensity tends to ramp up in the postseason. The Saints had the best rushing defense during the regular season, and the Rams just held Ezekiel Elliott to 47 rushing yards. Also, the Saints’ offense has not been as consistent down the stretch, scoring when they need to but not with the rapidity that they scored in the first half of the season. With all that said, I see the pace of this game ramping down, and while there will likely be some big plays, there won’t be as many of them as there were in the teams’ November matchup. Instead, I see the Saints winning, but in more of a grinding fashion, similar to their win over the Eagles last week. So I’m going under 57 points.

AFC Championship

New England at Kansas City (O/U 57) (6:40pm ET, CBS)

This game has me going back and forth as far as the winner goes. I don’t trust Andy Reid in the playoffs, because he has a penchant for making crucial mistakes with regard to time management down the stretch. Also, his decision-making tends to show panic when his teams build a lead but the opponent starts to come back, or when the opponent gets into his head. These poor decisions date all the way back to Super Bowl XXXIX, when Jeff Garcia led Reid’s Eagles to the Super Bowl in relief of Donovan McNabb at quarterback, but then Reid started a rusty McNabb in the Super Bowl despite the fact that McNabb was clearly not ready to go, and they continued last year, when the Chiefs let a 21-0 halftime lead in the wild card round over Tennessee at home evaporate and turn into a 22-21 defeat. But when it comes to over/under, if these teams were playing indoors, I’d go with the over. I might even go over if the point total got as high as 70. The Patriots did lock down the Chargers with their defense this past weekend, but Kansas City’s hunt just has too many weapons, especially with the emergence of Damien Williams to replace Kareem Hunt at tailback. However, the forecast for Sunday night’s AFC championship has the temperature somewhere between zero and 15 degrees. There is no rain or snow in the forecast, but that sort of temperature has an effect on the ball — the way quarterbacks hold it, the way people catch it, the way kickers can address it. It can get as hard as a rock, and it can lose air pressure due to the lower temperatures (no DeflateGate puns intended). So a game that might be a track meet in other situations will likely turn into a slugfest…which is why I’m picking this game to go under 57 points.