2018 NFL Week 4 Odds, Overview & Predictions for Each Game

It’s been 23 years since a 17-point underdog pulled off a win in an NFL contest, but we saw it happen this past week, as Buffalo went to Minnesota and pulled off a 27-6 shellacking, reversing the line by 38 points. The Dallas offense looks like it is trying to move through  molasses, averaging just 13 points per game after three weeks. San Francisco appears to have lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season after he blew out an ACL during a scramble on Sunday. New England has lost consecutive games by double digits for the first time since 2005, as they fell in Detroit by a 26-10 score. What can we expect this week? Take a look at our NFL Week 4 odds preview for each matchup. As always, home teams are in all caps.

2018 NFL Week 4 Odds, Overview & Predictions for Each Game

#NFL quarterback rankings, Week 4: Dak Prescott tumbles (via @MattVerderame) MORE: https://t.co/OtUgj4RRWa pic.twitter.com/EjWCooS66X

— FanSided NFL (@FanSidedNFL) September 25, 2018

• Bye Week: Carolina, Washington

Thursday, September 27, 8:20pm ET (FOX/NFL Network/Amazon Prime)

L.A. RAMS (-6.5) over Minnesota

The Bills showed that the Vikings are fairly vulnerable if they aren’t all on the same page. Kirk Cousins fumbled twice, Latavius Murray struggled to move the ball on the ground in relief of Dalvin Cook (hamstring). The Rams have a dynamic offense and a stout defense and will win and cover at home.

Sunday, September 30, 1:00pm ET

ATLANTA (-5) over Cincinnati

The Atlanta Falcons got into a firefight with New Orleans — and ended up losing 43-37 in overtime. The good news is that the Atlanta offense finally appears to have awakened, although their defense needs some work. Also, Andy Dalton can’t move the ball like Drew Brees can.

CHICAGO (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

The arrival of Khalil Mack has turned Chicago into a defensive powerhouse that is working toward the status of Buddy Ryan’s 46 scheme. The Bears dug themselves a 14-0 hole against Arizona before roaring back to win, but I see them putting the clamps on Fitzmagic.

Detroit (+3.5) over DALLAS

The Cowboys were able to move the ball enough against the Giants to win, but that’s only because Eli Manning had zero mobility in the pocket. Against dynamic offenses, the Cowboys will fall behind and then roll over. Detroit showed terrific energy in their win over New England in prime time and will deliver another lesson on Sunday.

Buffalo (+10.5) over GREEN BAY

Josh Allen is developing confidence in Buffalo, and while I don’t see the Bills pulling off two straight road upsets in NFC North destinations, I do see the Bills’ defense keeping things closer than double digits against an ambling Aaron Rodgers.

Philadelphia (-3) over TENNESSEE

Carson Wentz is back and shook off some rust in the 20-16 win over Indianapolis on Sunday. Tennessee is relying on an ailing Marcus Mariota and can’t keep up with the Birds.

INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) over Houston

The Colts pushed Philadelphia to the limit and was inside the five-yard line with a chance to score as time wound down, only to have the Eagles deliver a sack. Houston hasn’t shown the same sort of urgency in any game yet this year.

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Miami

Will Tom Brady have a Massachusetts-sized chip on his shoulder when the Patriots return home to face the Dolphins? You bet he will. Miami has a solid defense, but they won’t be able to slow down New England on the road.

JACKSONVILLE (-9) over N.Y. Jets

The Jaguars lost at home in a slugfest against the Titans. The Jets also have a sound defense, but the Jaguar defense will take advantage of mistakes by Sam Darnold to get back on a winning path.

Sunday, September 30, 4:05pm ET

Cleveland (+2.5) over OAKLAND

Baker Mayfield looked terrific in the Browns’ comeback win against the Jets last Thursday. The Raiders don’t have the defense to push him very hard, so he should find plenty of room to throw the ball down the field, while the Browns have the defense to bottle up the Raiders.

Seattle (-3) over ARIZONA

Seattle showed plenty of passion with their backs against the wall against Dallas, while Arizona gave up a 14-0 lead over Chicago, and putting Josh Rosen in for Sam Bradford didn’t give a spark at all.

Sunday, September 30, 4:25pm ET

New Orleans (-3.5) over N.Y. GIANTS 

The Saints have enough defense to keep Eli Manning bottled up — at least enough for the Drew Brees Show to put up another bucket of points.

L.A. CHARGERS (-9.5) over San Francisco

The Chargers took it on the chin against the Rams last week, but Jimmy Garoppolo is on the bench, so jump on this before the point spread gets to 12 or 14.

Sunday, September 30, 8:20pm ET

Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH

The Steelers don’t have a defense. My opinion might change on this after tonight’s tilt with Tampa Bay, but for now, I see the Ravens picking the Steelers apart in a barnburner.

Monday, October 1, 8:15pm ET

Kansas City (-3.5) over DENVER

The Patrick Mahomes Era in Kansas City has produced 13 touchdown passes in three games — a better start than Peyton Manning or Tom Brady have ever been able to generate. Denver doesn’t have the personnel to keep up.