Mississippi State vs Alabama NCAA Football Week 11 Lines & Pick

Alabama comes into their latest SEC West matchup having dispatched with LSU a week ago, rolling to a 29-0 win down in Baton Rouge. Some had thought that the LSU defense would finally test the Crimson Tide offense, but while Tua Tagovailoa did finally throw an interception, Alabama basically did what they wanted against an LSU team that could not move the ball. Now the Tide prepare to host the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who have followed up a 16-point loss at LSU with a 15-point home win over Texas A&M and a 45-3 shellacking of Louisiana Tech at their homecoming. Will this be another easy cake walk for the Crimson Tide, or do the Bulldogs have a surprise up their sleeves? We have a NCAAF odds preview for you to consider.

Mississippi State vs Alabama NCAA Football Week 11 Lines & Pick

Checking in at No. 1️⃣6️⃣ in the second @CFBPlayoff Rankings of the season. #CFBPlayoff #HailState🐶 pic.twitter.com/flOg5gAQZN

— MSU Football 🏈 (@HailStateFB) November 7, 2018

When: Saturday, November 10, 2018, 3:30pm ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Radio: Mississippi State Bulldog Sports Network / Alabama Crimson Tide Sports Network Live Stream: CBSSports.com NCAA Football Week 11 Odds: Alabama -25.5

Why should you bet on the Bulldogs?

Mississippi State enters this game ranked 16th in the nation, but some of their losses have been real letdowns, as they lost to Florida and Kentucky in addition to LSU. While Florida and Kentucky have contended in the SEC East this year, they have not hung with most of the SEC West competition they have faced. Last week, quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and the rest of the Bulldog offense feasted on Louisiana Tech, as he threw for 243 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 107 more yards. Deddrick Thomas led the receiving corps with a touchdown and 70 yards on three catches. Remember, though, that this bet is on a large point spread rather than a straight up outcome. Mississippi State has covered the spread in seven of their last ten games overall and in nine of their last twelve games against a team with a winning record. However, in SEC play, they have covered just twice in their last seven contests and have that same 2-5 record against the spread in their last seven home games. If you like Mississippi State here, you think Fitzgerald, who is the focus of both phases of their offense, can elude the Crimson Tide defense enough to keep the Bulldogs on the field so that they can score and eat up enough clock to keep the Tide from posting a rout.

Why should you put your money on the Crimson Tide?

With Alabama dispatching the then-#3 team in the nation last week in LSU, it’s hard to argue against picking them, even with this gargantuan spread. Tua Tagovailoa did throw for 295 yards and two scores in addition to that pick last week, with Jerry Jeudy hauling in eight passes for 103 yards. Damien Harris led the way on the ground with 107 yards and a touchdown of his own. Given the way that they rolled right over LSU’s fearsome defense with little trouble, it’s hard to see the Bulldogs putting up much resistance. Most of the against-the-spread metrics favor Alabama here. They have covered in four of their last five games against teams with winning records. They have also covered in five of their last seven games played on a grass field. They will be able to focus their defense on Fitzgerald, as he is the only blue-chip threat in their offense, and they have the personnel to shut him down.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Normally, a line of this size in an SEC West contest would make me think long and hard about giving all of those points. After all, the rivalries in this division are fierce, and it is certain that the effort and preparation will be top-notch on both sides. However, the talent and depth that Alabama have this year have turned most of their games into laughers by halftime. I don’t see the Bulldogs even keeping within this line. I predict a 48-13 win for Alabama.