Florida State at Clemson Week 11 NCAAF Odds & Prediction

This ACC showdown was a red-letter day on the calendar before the regular season started, but when Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois went down against Alabama in the season opener, the Seminoles went from being a national championship contender to a team that would have to fight to earn bowl eligibility. They enter this matchup at Clemson at 3-5, although they did win last week, knocking off Syracuse 27-24 at home — the same Syracuse team that beat Clemson at home, giving the Tigers their only loss of the season. Clemson went to North Carolina State and escaped with a 38-31 win. When these two teams met last year, the Tigers narrowly won, 37-34. Let’s see who has the upper hand in the NCAAF odds for Week 11.

Florida State at Clemson Week 11 NCAAF Odds & Prediction

The Play Don’t Care Who Makes It. #FSUvsCLEM This Saturday @ 3:30pm on ESPN. pic.twitter.com/fBZ7v1C2Kj

— Seminoles Recruiting (@FSU_Recruiting) November 7, 2017

When: Saturday, November 11, 2017, 3:30pm ET Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC TV: ESPN Radio: 103.1 FM (FSU) / 105.5 FM (Clemson) Live Stream: WatchESPN NCAAF Odds: Clemson -18, O/U 46.5

Why should you bet on the Seminoles?

Tailback Cam Akers was the hero of Florida State’s win last week, running for 199 yards and two touchdowns. He has cracked the 100-yard mark in three of his last five outings and has 695 rushing yards on the season. This made life easy for freshman quarterback James Blackman, who went 12 for 19 for 136 yards and a score. This is a team that relies on the run — which means that they can chew up the clock if they can sustain drives. Syracuse did make some inroads against the Florida State defense. Syracuse gained 463 yards of offense, including 314 yards through the air. Their play overall has been more solid on defense, but they still have only two conference games left to move up the ACC standings. They need three more victories if they want to become bowl eligible. The good news for Florida State is that Clemson has a history of underestimating inferior opponents — remember their home loss to Pitt last year, in addition to that loss to Syracuse earlier this year. If the Seminoles can build some early momentum, this could turn into a tight game — one that could have the Seminoles covering, if not pulling off the road upset.

Why should you put your money on the Tigers?

Clemson has transitioned from a pass-first offense when Deshaun Watson was quarterback to a run-first attack with his replacement, Kelly Bryant. Bryant ran for 88 yards and a pair of scores and also went 20 for 38 for 191 yards and another touchdown. Tavien Feaster ran for 105 yards, including an 89-yard scoring run. Three of the Tigers have run for more than 500 yards on the season so far, showing the emphasis they place on carrying the ball. The Clemson defense made a real mark in their national title run last year, and they stood tall when they needed to against the Wolfpack. They did permit 491 total yards and 31 points, but they also picked off two passes, ending crucial drives for North Carolina State. If you like Clemson to cover against Florida State, then you see the Tigers smothering the Seminole offensive attack with much more success than they did against North Carolina State (who was a ranked opponent). You also see the Clemson offense maintaining focus against an opponent who does not bring nearly as much talent to the table without Francois at the helm.

Latest NCAAF Odds Trends

• FSU is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games
• FSU is 19-6 SU in the last 25 games on the road
• The total went UNDER in 6 of Florida State’s last 8 games
• Clemson is 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 games
• Clemson is 13-1 SU in the last 14 games
• The total went UNDER in 5 of Clemson’s last 6 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I was very impressed with Clemson’s run to the title last year. Still a little concerned about their tendency to lose focus when they don’t have top-notch opposition, but I also don’t think that Florida State can hang with the Tigers. I see Clemson rolling out to a big win — the Seminoles are only 2-8 against the spread in their last ten visits to Clemson, and they have not covered the spread in any of their last eight games overall or any of their last seven ACC games. I predict a final score of Clemson 38, Florida State 16.